BAC

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

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Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more

4 Very Good Reasons Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Stocks

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Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character.Untermyer: Before money or property?Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913   Image: Bank Run in Michigan, USA, February 1933. Source: Public Domain. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s sometimes easy to lose sight of the fragility of a banking firm’s business model. Let’s examine the reasons why we don’t like banking firms’ dividends. Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible. Reason #2: Others Have Tried to Invest in Bank Dividends and Have Failed. Reason #3: … Read more

Economic Commentary: Bank Earnings, US-China Phase One No Big Deal and More

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Bloomberg recently reported that U.S. banks’ record-breaking earnings have likely peaked for this cycle. We’ll get the team’s thoughts on this, and we’ll also cover views on the corporate credit cycle, China GDP, and the US election cycle. We don’t think the US-China Phase One deal amounts to much, other than removing the uncertainty that it, itself, created. Let’s kick things off with our views on a recent Bloomberg piece, U.S. Banks’ Record-Breaking Earnings Streak Has Probably Peaked, “which notes that “global interest rates remain stubbornly low and geopolitical tensions (remain) high.” Matt Warren is Valuentum’s Independent Bank and Economic contributor, and we’ll start there. Matthew Warren: The views expressed in the article seem a bit overly bearish assuming the … Read more

The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more

American Express Carries Meaningful Credit Risk

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Image Source: American Express Company – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan At Valuentum, we are very bullish on the growth trajectory of high-quality payment processing, payment solutions, and financial technology firms. That’s why we include PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) as top-weighted holdings in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. However, please note that what makes those firms appealing is the limited or lack of exposure to credit risk. Visa carries no credit risk and generates revenues through fees collected on transactions conducted with Visa-branded cards, and while PayPal possesses some credit risk, that risk is rather small relative to its overall business. Both firms enable investors to capitalize on the shift to … Read more

Update on Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: 31,000+ Infections, 630+ Deaths

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Image Source: 2019-nCoV, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention The number of infections and deaths related to the Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus has surged since our last update, but we maintain our view that investors should keep a level head. We continue to wait to add protection to the newsletter portfolios as the market absorbs a massive liquidity injection from the PBOC. By Brian Nelson, CFA The week of trading ending February 7 was a very strange one. Last Sunday, one could have only expected that given the news related to the Wuhan 2019 Novel Coronavirus outbreak, the bad news related to airlines (JETS) and aerospace players–Boeing (BA), in particular–and the speculative frenzy associated with Tesla’s (TSLA) rise, that the … Read more