CRM

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

by

Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Salesforce Raises Full Year Revenue Guidance, Announces Plans to Acquire Informatica

by

Image: Salesforce’s shares have been choppy the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA Salesforce (CRM) recently reported better than expected first quarter fiscal 2026 results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share exceeding the respective consensus forecasts. First quarter revenue was $9.8 billion, up 8% year-over-year, with current remaining performance obligations advancing 12% year-over-year (11% in constant currency), to $29.6 billion. First quarter GAAP operating margin was 19.8%, while non-GAAP operating margin came in at 32.3%. Non-GAAP diluted net income per share was $2.58 versus $2.44 in the same period last year. Management had the following to say about the quarter: We delivered strong Q1 results and are raising our guidance by $400 million to $41.3 billion at the … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

by

Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of March 28

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 28. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Armanino Foods of Distinction (AMNF): now $0.0400 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0363. BankUnited (BKU): now $0.31 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. BBVA Compass Bancshares (BBVA): now $0.4439 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.3243. BRP (DOOO): now CAD 0.215 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.210. Ermenegildo Zegna (ZGN): now EUR 0.12 per share dividend, was EUR 0.10. Hamilton REITs YIELD MAXIMIZER ETF … Read more

Oracle’s Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) Growth Speaks to Accelerated Expansion

by

Image Source: Oracle By Brian Nelson, CFA On December 9, Oracle (ORCL) reported lower than expected second quarter fiscal 2025 results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in lower than the consensus forecasts. Total revenue was up 9% year-over-year in both USD and constant currency, while GAAP earnings per share increased 24% and non-GAAP earnings per share advanced 10%, to $1.47. Cloud services and license support revenues increased 12% year-over-year in both USD and constant currency, while cloud license and on-premise license revenue nudged up 1% in USD and 3% in constant currency. Management’s commentary was upbeat in the press release: Record level AI demand drove Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue up 52% in Q2, a much higher growth … Read more

Salesforce Posts Mixed Results, Agentforce Capitalizing on AI Demand

by

Image Source: Salesforce By Brian Nelson, CFA Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) reported mixed third quarter results on December 3 with revenue coming in ahead of the consensus forecast, but non-GAAP earnings per share coming in light versus what Wall Street had been looking for. Third quarter revenue grew 8% on a year-over-year basis with Subscription and Support revenue up 9%. Its third quarter GAAP operating margin was 20%, up 280 basis points year-over-year, while its non-GAAP operating margin came in at 33.1%, up 190 basis points year-over-year. In the quarter, non-GAAP diluted net income per share was $2.41, up 14% year-over-year. Management had the following to say about the quarter: We delivered another quarter of exceptional financial performance across revenue, margin, … Read more

Salesforce Delivers on Second Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results

by

Image: Salesforce’s shares have bounced back nicely during the past year. By Brian Nelson, CFA On August 28, Salesforce (CRM) reported better than expected second quarter fiscal 2025 results with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than the consensus forecasts. Second quarter revenue was up 8.4% year-over-year (9% in constant currency), which includes Subscription & Support revenue growth of 9% (10% in constant currency). Its second quarter GAAP operating margin was 19.1%, while its non-GAAP operating margin came in at 33.7%. Non-GAAP diluted net income per share came in at $2.56 in the quarter, up from $2.12 in the same period last year. Management’s commentary was upbeat in the press release: In Q2, we delivered strong … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

by

Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more