QLYS

Adobe Acrobat Pro Prices Up 33%; Price Tag of Figma Deal Remains Overhang on Shares

by

Image: Adobe’s long-term market opportunity is huge. Image Source: Adobe By Brian Nelson, CFA All things considered, fiscal 2022 was a solid year for Adobe (ADBE), as reported in its latest quarterly earnings report December 15. The company generated record revenue, operating income, and operating cash flow, and we loved that management is talking in terms of the “next decade of growth,” not next quarter or even next year. We like executive suites that are positioning their companies for the long run, and we think Chairman and CEO Shantanu Narayen has done a great job leading the charge. Adobe is among the most well-known software companies due in part to its Adobe Acrobat software. Almost anyone that has applied for a job has … Read more

Dividend Growth Idea Oracle Showing Serious Growth Momentum

by

Image Source: Oracle Corporation – September 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On June 13, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended May 31, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The tech giant also provided favorable constant currency revenue growth guidance for its cloud businesses for fiscal 2023. Shares of ORCL initially surged higher in the wake of its latest earnings report before drifting modestly lower along the decline in broader equity markets. We include Oracle as an idea in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and shares of ORCL yield ~1.9% as of this writing. Quarterly Update In the fiscal fourth quarter, Oracle’s GAAP revenues grew by 5% year-over-year and were up … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

by

Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

by

With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Prepared Remarks From Nelson Exclusive Conference Call June 30

by

Read President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s prepared remarks for the yearly roundup conference call, held for Nelson Exclusive members. If you would like to subscribe to the Nelson Exclusive publication, please learn more about the publication here. The Nelson Exclusive publication does not reflect real performance. Performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you very much for joining us on the first conference call for members of the Nelson Exclusive publication. The first year of the publication has surely been an exciting one for all involved. When I first wrote the introductory letter of the Nelson Exclusive on July 1, 2016, we were well-aware the market had laid down the gauntlet for this publication. … Read more

Podcast: Defense Spending and the Explosion of Cyber Crime

by

The Valuentum analyst team discusses trends in US and global defense spending and the explosion of Internet crime that is fueling investment in cyber security both in the public and private sectors. ~7 mins. This podcast was originally published November 3, 2016. If you cannot view the video below, please view the transcript that follows or click the link here. Software – Security: CHKP, FEYE, FTNT, IMPV, PANW, PFPT, SYMC, VRSN Aerospace & Defense – Prime: BA, FLIR, GD, LLL, LMT, NOC, RTN Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson for Valuentum Securities, and today I have joining me on our podcast Mr. Kris Rosemann and Mr. Chris Araos. Today, we are going to talk about the landscape for defense spending … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

by

Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

The Global Pandemic of Cybercrime, Cyber Espionage and Cyber Warfare

by

“The new generation of cyber-attacks on organizations, including large and small enterprises and governments worldwide, is characterized by an unprecedented escalation in the complexity and scale of advanced malware created by criminal organizations and nation-states. These modern attacks are built on dynamic, stealthy and targeted malware that penetrates defenses in multiple stages and through multiple entry points of an IT network. These highly targeted, “single-use” cyber-attacks easily circumvent legacy security solutions that rely on pattern-matching detection technologies. Additionally, because legacy solutions reference outdated signatures of past threats, they also generate a high number of false-positive alerts.” – Fireeye Annual Report, 2014 The statistics are striking. According to a 2011 survey of ~580 US IT experts by research center Ponemon Institute, … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

by

A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Volatility Spikes, Oh Cisco, the Mighty US Dollar, and More

by

Image Source: CBOE Let’s talk about recent market events May 17. There’s a lot going on. By Brian Nelson, CFA It looks like volatility is back in a big way, with “all 29 volatility indexes at the CBOE ris(ing) today,” one more-than-doubling, the CBOE Short-Term Volatility Index (VXST). The ridiculously-named “fear gauge” or “fear index” or the CBOE Volatility Index, the VIX (VIX) leapt nearly 50%. On May 17, we effectively bought volatility intraday by adding put options to the newsletter portfolios, both on the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and Netflix, a company whose valuation we think remains ridiculous. We may continue to add put options on entities whose equity prices we believe have become too stretched, positions that may … Read more