MSCI

Fair Value Estimate Changes: Facebook, Twitter, Caterpillar and More…

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  By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Let’s begin this edition of Recent Material Fair Value Estimate Changes’ with a discussion of some of the highest-profile names that made the list. If you require background reading on why we make changes to our valuation models, please see: What causes fair value estimates to change? Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook (FB) continues to separate itself from other social media companies, and we continue to be impressed by its free cash flow generating prowess and net cash-rich balance sheet. Our most recent fair value estimate increase comes largely as a result of greater optimism regarding the sustainability of the company’s pace of revenue growth, reflected by a hike in our mid-cycle … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Software: Adobe Keeps Rolling; Oracle Hit by Venezuela Forex Issues

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On Thursday, Adobe (ADBE) put up better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter performance and issued a strong outlook, while Oracle’s (ORCL) fiscal third-quarter results faced currency challenges and its forward guidance came in about as expected. Adobe achieved revenue of $1 billion, at the high end of the targeted range (and above consensus), and exited the fiscal first quarter with an impressive 1.84 million paid Creative Cloud subscriptions, an increase of 405,000 on a sequential basis. Adobe Marketing Cloud quarterly revenue jumped 24% during the period, to $267 million, a nice showing. Diluted earnings per share on a non-GAAP basis came in at $0.30, beating the consensus figure by $0.05. The fiscal first-quarter results were solid, but the company’s outlook was even better. … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending August 2

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending August 2. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX): now $0.19 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.165. AllianceBernstein (AB): now $0.56 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.49. American States Water (AWR): now $0.305 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.275. Apollo Global Management (APO): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.46. Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): now $0.29 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM): now $0.60 per … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 29

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 29. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP): now $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.35. Amalgamated Bank (AMAL): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.08. American States Water (AWR): now $0.3975 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.3650. Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): now $0.39 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.38. Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH): now $0.19 … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 31

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 31. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          AES (AES): now $0.1759 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1725. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.730 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.705. Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT): now $0.46 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. Archrock (AROC): now $0.190 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.175. Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG): now $0.65 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.60. Baker Hughes (BKR): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more