The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds
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Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes. Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more
Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More
Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more
Home Depot, Dick’s Sporting Goods Report Strong 3Q Results
Tuesday brought a couple solid reports from the consumer discretionary sector (XLY). Home Depot (HD), which we think is a better operator than peer Lowe’s (LOW), posted an impressive comparable-store sales increase during the third quarter, while Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) showcased a strong high-teens pace of top-line expansion in the period. Our reasoning behind Home Depot’s operating superiority relative to Lowe’s is worth repeating. For starters, the most important metric to judge a business is return on invested capital (ROIC), or the amount of earnings (before interest) that a firm generates divided by the amount of capital that it must hold in the business in order to generate that earnings stream. Return on invested capital is not a pure … Read more
Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update
Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more
Stock Market Outlook for 2021
By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more
Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more
The Investment Case for the 1989-1990 Hoops Michael Jordan #200 Basketball Card
Image Shown: 1989-1990 Hoops Michael Jordan #200. On February 12, 2021, a sealed case of 20 boxes of 1989-1990 Series 1 Hoops Basketball cards sold on eBay for ~$5,999[1]. 36 packs x 15 cards per pack = 540 cards per box. 10,800 cards in the case. By Brian Nelson, CFA After I put together a video on the roaring basketball card market,[2] I received a few questions on which basketball card I thought was the most undervalued in today’s market. The interest is understandable given news that a Lebron James rookie card recently sold for $5.2 million, a Luka Doncic card sold for $4.6 million[3], and a Kobe Bryant rookie refractor sold for $1.8 million[4]. First of all, I am … Read more
2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?
Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more