WBA

CVS Health at the Crossroads, Too Much Debt

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We have been disappointed with the lack progress displayed by CVS Health thus far in 2017. We knew the business was entering into an earnings trough as a result of key contract losses, but recent events have unfolded that, in our view, have lessened the attractiveness of its business model, to a meaningful degree. Let’s talk more about what’s happening at CVS Health, the changing PBM market, Amazon’s threat, and too much leverage. We’re not overreacting, but we’re not happy either. By Alexander J. Poulos “CVS Health hasn’t performed as we would have hoped during 2017, and frankly, it has been hit by a storm of negativity, not the least of which has been caused by the disruptive threat of … Read more

Roaring 20s? — Consumer Staples Valuations Stretched

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Strong outlooks for Kimberly-Clark, United Technologies, Hexcel and Lockheed Martin point to an economy that is still gaining momentum. We caution investors of consumer staples stocks, however, with many equities holding large net debt positions, and the sector trading at almost 20 times forward earnings. Learn about the difference between the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the Exclusive publication and much more in this note. Image Source: Alan Levine — By Brian Nelson, CFA Welcome new members!    As you’re getting familiar with the website, please watch the Navigation Video. For those passionate about financial analysis and to see how deep our team goes with our research, please watch the Financial Analysis Video. Finally, don’t forget to flip through the , and read our … Read more

The Dividend Cushion Meets the Dividend Aristocrats

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By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we know that forward-looking dividend analysis and opinion is all that matters for most income investors. That’s why we’ve provided the following screen of key constituents in the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) and their forward-looking Dividend Cushion ratio. After all, the past is just the past. The future is what counts. The SPDR S&P Dividend ETF is a fund that tracks the the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index, which is “designed to measure the performance of the highest dividend-yielding S&P Composite 1500 Index constituents that have followed a managed-dividends policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 20 consecutive years.” To access either the 16-page stock report or the dividend report of each firm in the following modified ‘Aristocrats’ … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

Qurate Retail Faces Difficult Turnaround Process

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Image Source: Qurate Retail Inc – First Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation Executive Summary: Qurate Retail Inc is home to several well-known retail brands including QVC and HSN that operate television networks and online marketplaces that sell curated products. The company is contending with several exogenous shocks such as inflationary pressures and supply chain hurdles, while customer engagement levels are on the decline after growing during the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Qurate Retail has a massive net debt load and sizable annual financing obligations, and its margins have deteriorated substantially of late. Due to its complex share structure and management organization, weak financial position, and lackluster outlook, we are not interested in Qurate Retail’s common or preferred … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

WBA, ESRX, CVS: Earnings Update for the Pharmacy Services Industry

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Image Source: Mike Mozart The first-quarter earnings performance across the pharmacy services industry has been a proverbial mixed bag with uncertainty continuing to weigh on performance. We continue to be interested in the industry for its defensive and strong free cash flow characteristics that bode well for dividend hikes and share repurchases going forward. We like CVS the most. By Alexander J. Poulos Walgreens Boots Alliance Remains Mired in Holding Pattern Shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) reported a relatively in-line first quarter, its fiscal second quarter, on April 5, and all eyes continue to be focused on the pending Rite Aid (RAD) acquisition. We have been fans of the moves taken by Walgreens post the Alliance deal that saw … Read more

The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more

Volatility Spikes, Oh Cisco, the Mighty US Dollar, and More

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Image Source: CBOE Let’s talk about recent market events May 17. There’s a lot going on. By Brian Nelson, CFA It looks like volatility is back in a big way, with “all 29 volatility indexes at the CBOE ris(ing) today,” one more-than-doubling, the CBOE Short-Term Volatility Index (VXST). The ridiculously-named “fear gauge” or “fear index” or the CBOE Volatility Index, the VIX (VIX) leapt nearly 50%. On May 17, we effectively bought volatility intraday by adding put options to the newsletter portfolios, both on the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and Netflix, a company whose valuation we think remains ridiculous. We may continue to add put options on entities whose equity prices we believe have become too stretched, positions that may … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more