UUP

Fed Rate Decision, UAW Strike Continues, Microsoft Ups Payout

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Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA If you’re thinking like us about the ongoing Fed rate-hiking cycle, you’re probably thinking that perhaps we’ll see another rate hike or two down the road, even if the Fed pauses at today’s September 20 meeting. However, whether the Fed pauses from here on out or executes a couple more rate hikes, it really shouldn’t matter much to long-term investors. From where we stand, the conversation about interest rates should now be shifting away from worries about elevated inflation to the future positive prospects that correspond to the work that the Fed has already done. With the market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) just a stone’s throw away from all-time highs, despite aggressive … Read more

Walmart Is Back on Track; Markets Looking Healthier

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Image: Walmart’s operating income performance, while still under pressure, improved considerably during the third quarter. Image Source: Walmart By Brian Nelson, CFA Walmart Inc. (WMT) was the canary in the coal mine earlier this year when the company reported its first-quarter 2022 results in May that showed spending on food staples and energy (gas) was cutting into discretionary general merchandise (hardline) spending. However, market sentiment seems to be improving these days, and the firm’s third-quarter results released November 15 showed the huge big box retailer is getting back on track. Though we’re not going to be adding Walmart to any newsletter portfolio, we like what we saw in the quarterly report. During the third quarter, Walmart’s total sales growth advanced … Read more

ICYMI: Things Have Changed Fast; Inflation and the Fed Have Damaged the Economy

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This article was originally published October 5.   Image Source: EpicTop10.com By Brian Nelson, CFA The year 2022 started out with the popping of the bubble in the alternative investments arena–namely in the cryptocurrency (BITO), non-fungible token (NFT), and the collectibles markets–coupled with worries about the Fed raising interest rates to combat inflation and weakness in the most speculative equity areas, namely disruptive innovation stocks (ARKK). It’s important to note that the consumer price index (CPI) started to edge meaningfully higher in early 2021 (not this year). Though the writing was on the wall with respect to impending Fed tightening, as investors, we have to assess what the Fed will do and the impact on the markets, not necessarily what … Read more

Things Are Bad Out There

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“I don’t like this market one bit, but we have to endure. Markets will rise again, but there will be a lot more pain to come in the near term. We think the base case is that we get a very bad recession in 2023. We’ve yet to pull the trigger on put option ideas in the simulated newsletter portfolios, but we expect things to get worse before they get better. For readers seeking ongoing option ideas each month, please consider subscribing to our options commentary here.” – Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA Things are bad out there, and there’s probably no better way to say it. On September 28, Bloomberg reported that Apple Inc. (AAPL) is now … Read more

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s Callum Turcan

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Callum Turcan helps head up Valuentum’s research product and is co-editor of the company’s newsletters. We sat down with Callum to get his thoughts on new developments in the market and economy. Let’s kick things off with his thoughts on Brexit. Callum Turcan: Looks like the Brexit debate is coming to a close with a large Tory majority coming into the UK Parliament (EWU) after the December 12 general election, a large enough majority to provide Prime Minister Boris Johnson with more than enough room to maneuver the likely political obstacles ahead (over the next couple of months). By early 2020, it seems the UK will no longer be a member of the EU given that the incoming Parliament, in … Read more

Join the Conversation on the Market Plunge

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The Valuentum team shares its thoughts on the recent surge in volatility and collapse in interest rates amid a trade and currency war between two of the largest economies in the world, the US and China. No changes to the newsletter portfolios at this time. During the past few days, the US (SPY, DIA) and China (FXI, MCHI) have escalated a trade war, turning it into a currency war, the latter allowing its yuan to drop to lower levels against the U.S. dollar. The US has now labeled China a “currency manipulator,” and China has responded by suspending U.S. agricultural purchases. China is one of the largest buyers of U.S. agricultural goods. The Valuentum team builds on its previous conversation … Read more

In the News: Brexit, Unilever Simplification, and Geopolitical Uncertainty

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Uncertainty related to Brexit continues to loom over the outlooks of multinational companies operating in Europe, and other geopolitical issues are making their presence known on global markets as well. By Kris Rosemann The British pound hit five-week highs against the dollar on the morning of September 11 as EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said it was “realistic” to think the United Kingdom and European Union will reach a Brexit (EWU) deal within two months. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on March 29, 2019, and Barnier’s comments have helped ease some concerns that the UK would leave the bloc without a formal trading agreement. President Trump’s silence regarding tariffs on the region has also fostered some cautious optimism, but … Read more

The US Dollar, GDP Expansion, and Earnings

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Investors wouldn’t think news flow is that robust given that stock market volatility in recent months has been practically nil, but news is coming in fast. Let’s check up on the performance of the US dollar, the rate of GDP growth as well as key companies reporting fourth-quarter earnings. Intel’s quarterly report was fantastic, for one!    By Kris Rosemann The US dollar (UUP, UDN, USDU) hit a three-year low against the euro, but US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggests a weaker dollar may be good for the US, which is a change from traditional US policy, though he was sure to note that the government is not concerned about short-term fluctuations in the currency. Meanwhile, of course, the euro … Read more

2018 Starts Out with a Bang!

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Image Shown: An ETF that measures momentum (MTUM) has done considerably better than the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2017. Among its top 5 holdings are Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA)—newsletter holdings that have had excellent value characteristics along the way. Visa (V) is also included in its top 10 holdings.

Even some the most bullish and optimistic investors have been surprised by the resiliency of today’s market environment. Why does it seem appropriate to remind members that the stock market doesn’t always go straight up with almost no volatility?

Recent Material Fair Value Estimate Changes

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By Kris Rosemann Let’s begin this edition of ‘Recent Material Fair Value Estimate Changes’ with a discussion of some of the highest-profile names that made the list. If you require background reading on why we make changes to our valuation models, please see: What Causes Fair Value Estimates to Change? We’ve raised our fair value estimates for two of the holdings in the newsletter portfolios, General Electric (GE) and Union Pacific (UNP). The sprawling and evolving industrial portfolio of General Electric is one of the more exciting portions of our portfolios, as the industrial giant boasts assets with authoritative positions in areas from the rapidly expanding Industrial Internet of Things to the rebounding energy services space. An increase in near-term … Read more