VC

Fed Rate Decision, UAW Strike Continues, Microsoft Ups Payout

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Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA If you’re thinking like us about the ongoing Fed rate-hiking cycle, you’re probably thinking that perhaps we’ll see another rate hike or two down the road, even if the Fed pauses at today’s September 20 meeting. However, whether the Fed pauses from here on out or executes a couple more rate hikes, it really shouldn’t matter much to long-term investors. From where we stand, the conversation about interest rates should now be shifting away from worries about elevated inflation to the future positive prospects that correspond to the work that the Fed has already done. With the market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) just a stone’s throw away from all-time highs, despite aggressive … Read more

Big Changes in the Auto Industry as Chip Shortages, Supply Chain Issues, and Rising Input Costs Complicate Matters; Tesla and Ferrari Our Two Favorite Names

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Image: Ferrari’s fundamental momentum has been strong of late. Image Source: Ferrari N.V. 2022 Globe Newswire By Brian Nelson, CFA The auto industry perhaps has changed more than any other industry the past five years. First, it was Ford (F) that said it wouldn’t make passenger cars anymore, except for its iconic Mustang. Then, the European Union said that it would eventually end the internal combustion engine (ICE) by 2035. Then, Tesla (TSLA) reached over $1,200 per share and over a $1 trillion market capitalization. Can you imagine a world where Ford is not making sedans, the once modern-marvel of the internal combustion engine is dying, and where one car maker is worth as much as the next nine car … Read more

Tesla Scaling Up Nicely

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Image Shown: Tesla Inc is steadily working towards bringing another manufacturing facility online in the US, this time near Austin, Texas. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Shareholder Letter Covering the First Quarter of 2021 By Callum Turcan Electric vehicle (‘EV’) giant Tesla Inc (TSLA) continues to impress as it smashed past consensus top- and bottom-line estimates when it reported first quarter 2021 earnings on April 26. The company delivered 184,800 vehicles (182,780 Model 3/Y variants and 2,020 Model S/X variants) and produced 180,338 vehicles in the first quarter of this year, though we note that Tesla only produced Model 3/Y variants last quarter and Model S/X vehicle deliveries were met via its inventory. In the first quarter of 2021, Tesla’s … Read more

Xpel Is an Intriguing Play on the Auto Industry

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Image Shown: Most of Xpel Inc’s business is built around its paint protection film products for automobiles. Image Source: Xpel Inc – November 2020 IR Presentation Executive Summary: Xpel has a pristine balance sheet (nice net cash position), strong cash flow profile, ample growth opportunities, and a plan to boost its margins. The company primarily sells paint protection film products for automobiles, and its outlook appears quite promising as the firm is moving into adjacent areas while putting up rock-solid performance of late. We are highlighting Xpel given its potential for additional capital appreciation upside, though we caution shares of XPEL are up almost four-fold over the past year as of the middle of February 2021. By Callum Turcan Xpel … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Is Hot and Getting Hotter

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Image Shown: A look at Tesla Inc’s new Gigafactory factory (Model Y body shop) in Shanghai, China. Image Source: Tesla Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan The electric vehicle (‘EV’) market is hot and getting hotter. Aided by a combination of supportive government policies such as subsides for EVs (purchase tax credits, manufacturing tax credits), plans to ban the sale of automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (‘ICE’) in the coming years, and shifting consumer preferences (households preferring to appear “green”), the long-term outlook for EV sales is quite bright. Tesla Inc (TSLA) is the posterchild of the EV boom given its first-mover advantage, though competitive headwinds are rising. Legacy auto manufacturers are looking … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 25

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 25. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Archrock (AROC): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. Arrow Financial (AROW): now $0.29 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Blackstone (BX): now $1.03 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.93. Cashmere Valley Bank (CSHX): now $0.95 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.90. CB Financial Services (CBFV): now $0.26 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. ChipMOS (IMOS): now $0.836 per share American depositary share, … Read more