KODK

How Some Members Use Valuentum’s Investment Services

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Thank you for your membership to Valuentum. We serve a wide variety of investors, including dividend growth investors, value investors, and pure Valuentum investors, among others. Many different types of investors and professionals use our research and financial analysis in a whole host of applications from individual stock-selection to the evaluation of closed-end funds to an overlay in a money-management setting and beyond. We wanted to make sure that you know that, if you’re a dividend growth or income investor, that there are others that use our website to utilize the Valuentum process, fair value estimates and other metrics. Similarly, if you’re a practitioner of the Valuentum system, I wanted to make sure that you are … Read more

ALERT: Bull Raids, Short Squeezes and Highly Unusual Market Activity

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We are putting short investors on high alert! By Brian Nelson, CFA In late 2018, Valuentum published Value Trap, a book that warned to all that would heed its warning that a collapse in the traditional quant value factor was coming and that excessive volatility in the markets caused by price-agnostic trading–or those that aren’t paying attention to fair value estimate calculations–would only build and build to eventually reach extreme and irrational levels. The book, while hugely successful winning award after award, was largely ignored by the media, despite our best efforts to get the word out. Now, the chickens are coming home to roost. Image Shown: The book Value Trap warned about the impending collapse of the value factor, … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

2018 Starts Out with a Bang!

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Image Shown: An ETF that measures momentum (MTUM) has done considerably better than the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2017. Among its top 5 holdings are Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA)—newsletter holdings that have had excellent value characteristics along the way. Visa (V) is also included in its top 10 holdings.

Even some the most bullish and optimistic investors have been surprised by the resiliency of today’s market environment. Why does it seem appropriate to remind members that the stock market doesn’t always go straight up with almost no volatility?

Unemployment Rate Falls to 5.1%! Great Times in America!

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Image Source: BLS The future is all that matters. This is a basic tenet of the stock market, where prices of equities are forward-looking discounting mechanisms. August is now over, and we learned that the job market in the United States is close to the healthiest it has been in a long time—that is, if you buy into the data calculations behind the national unemployment rate, which now stands at a 5.1%. The mark is the lowest level since the Great Recession of late last decade and is now roughly half the levels experienced at the “height” of the Great Recession, which drove 10% of Americans that were willing to work out of a job. The Fed has worked a … Read more

3 Reasons Why Buffalo Wild Wings Is a Long-Term Winner

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#1: Buffalo Wild Wings Has Captured the Hearts of Children “Plant the Brownie acorn and the Kodak oak will grow.” George Eastman knew all too well about winning the hearts of children. The inventor-entrepreneur popularized flexible film in the 1880s, and his first Kodak camera was available for purchase by the end of the decade. But the breakthrough was too expensive, and it wasn’t until the Kodak Brownie, released a dozen years later, that photography was democratized. The camera sold for just a $1 and was easy to use. But importantly, Eastman focused his marketing and advertising efforts on children. When these children grew up, the seeds had been planted, and Eastman had built an empire. The Kodak oak grew. … Read more

Happy Thanksgiving! 5 Entrepreneurs To Be Thankful For!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA “Global Entrepreneurship Week” was November 17-23 this year, and the U.S. Congress continues to work diligently to establish the third Tuesday in November a national holiday celebrating the contributions of entrepreneurs to the U.S. as well as “honor those entrepreneurs who ignite innovation and inspire the next generation.” Today, this Thanksgiving, we wanted to celebrate the contributions of 5 entrepreneurs to be thankful for this holiday season. Feel free to add your favorite entrepreneur to this list as well and any obscure fact you want to share about him or her. The list is not meant to be comprehensive, but entertaining and educational. Please don’t forget to answer the bonus question below. Be sure to enjoy … Read more

What the Pokémon Sensation Means

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Image Source: Eduardo Woo By Jessica Bishop You might not think putting fuzzy little creatures on a map can drive a company’s market capitalization up more than $7+ billion in one single day (its highest one-day surge since 1983), but Pokémon Go did just that. Starting out as collectible trading cards in the late 1990’s and evolving into a video game franchise, Pokémon is back in the spotlight, bringing excitement to investors. Nintendo’s (NTDOY) equity has jumped 50%+ in all since the company unveiled its new game. Let’s talk about why you should care. What Is Pokémon Go? Pokémon Go is a new game (app) for the smartphone that’s been gaining momentum in the US since the morning of its … Read more