TDW

Is OPEC For Real This Time?

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By Kris Rosemann On September 28, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached an agreement to cut crude oil production levels for the first time since 2008. The cartel reportedly agreed to limit production of member nations to a range of 32.5-33 million barrels per day (bpd) while leaders met at the International Energy Forum in Algiers, Algeria. As would be expected following such news, the price of crude oil has bounced, bringing market sentiment surrounding energy-related stocks higher along with it. The proposed production could be a reduction of up to 750,000 bpd from OPEC production levels in the month of August, but how the group of nations will reach such a production cut has yet to … Read more

Dividends Not Safe as Energy Markets Swoon

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We’ve been cautious on the oil and gas markets (XLE, AMLP) for some time, and that includes our October move closer to market neutral on the sector, but we’re still underweight the group. We’ve been saying that crude oil prices are more likely to hit the $20 per barrel level than move significantly higher, and we maintain our view that they may never again return to the $100 per barrel, a level many have grown accustomed to. After all, why should they? Unfortunately, the fallout continues to punish traditional “buy and hold” investors who have been trained to ignore most “news” and may still be holding on the belief of the fallacy of mean reversion, something that we believe cannot … Read more

Transaction Alerts: Moving Closer to Market Neutral on Energy

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The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has generated significant outperformance in part from avoiding many of the landmines across the energy sector during the past many months. We’ve done equally well in our calls in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and we’re very proud of raising the issue of the importance of looking at non-GAAP free cash flow across pipeline entities. We believe that such a measure is the best one to assess the timing of free cash flows as they are generated, an important consideration for investors of all types, and not properly addressed in measures of distributable cash flow or a company’s dividend or distribution. Why are we now inching ever so slightly back into energy? 1. The market … Read more

One Dividend Suspension and Five Other Disappointments

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The wreckage in crude oil prices has left many in awe of the range of probable outcomes for the commodity even over a multi-month period, let alone a multi-year period. The precipitous decline has forced high-yielding equities such as Linn Energy (LINE) and Seadrill (SDRL) to slash their income payouts and begin the long road to recovery, as it has pushed the backs of others, including Legacy Reserves (LGCY), against the wall. Investor confidence, once lost, however may never be regained, and management teams know this. A dividend cut will always be the last resort, but crude oil hasn’t been the only commodity falling out of favor. Copper and iron ore have also seen much better days, too. January 26 … Read more

$45 Oil Prices!?!? There Is Never a Sense of Urgency When One Is Prepared

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Image Source: Macrotrends The bull market in energy (XLE) has lasted for the better part of a decade. Ever since the turn of the new century, energy perma-bulls have made the case that “black gold” (USO) should continue its ever-upward price advance thanks to ongoing demand from emerging and developing economies coupled with reduced inventories and areas of supply. We’re seeing this thesis challenged right at this moment. In deciding not to cut crude oil output in the face of oversupply and falling prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), for the lack of a better phrase, is now essentially engaged in a price war with producers in the US that are using breakthrough technology to produce oil … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Search Dividend Reports by Company Name: Q to Z

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Going forward, please use the ‘Symbol’ search box to download stock and dividend reports of companies you are interested in. The ‘Symbol’ search box can be found in our website header. Image shown from above. Use the active search box in the website header above. Learn more about your membership >>  Note: We have now discontinued this list. Please use the ‘Symbol’ search box in the website header for stock and dividend reports. Please read about our Valuentum Dividend Cushion score (ratio) here. Just having access to this valuable metric alone could save your income portfolio thousands of dollars! The past meets the future as we showcase the Valuentum Dividend Cushion scores of Dividend Aristocrats in this article (click here). The dividend reports below … Read more

Energy Sector In Shambles, Looks to Recover But Headwinds Persist

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Image Source: ConocoPhillips – November 2019 Analyst and Investor Meeting IR Presentation Executive Summary: Though raw energy resource pricing is on the rebound, the outlook for the oil and gas industry remains stressed. Global demand for oil and related refined petroleum products remains subdued due to headwinds generated by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The OPEC+ oil cartel has responded by pledging to keep a significant amount of oil output off the market for an extended time. However, raw energy resource prices need to go much higher and be sustained at elevated levels before the space could become attractive from a longer-term perspective. In our view, the US upstream industry (specifically those in the shale patch) need WTI to move … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more