SYNA

Earnings from 8 Interesting Ideas

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By Brian Nelson, CFA “’I believe you have to be willing to be misunderstood if you’re going to innovate.’ You can’t outperform the market if you are the market. Similarly, you must adopt a non-consensus view and be right about that view to beat competitors.” CEO of Amazon Jeff Bezos with ‘Source: 25iq’ commentary Many members have expressed to me that they just can’t believe investors select stocks in a different way than the Valuentum style (absent dividend growth investors, which have carved out a unique niche in their own right). Some of our new members think the Valuentum process is the principal and dominant framework for investing – or how the majority of investors look at things. This view … Read more

Revenue Growth Not an Issue at Synaptics

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After persistent rumors surrounding weakness in Samsung Galaxy S4 sales weighed on the stock, touch-screen control supplier Synaptics (click ticker for report: ) raised its fourth quarter outlook Tuesday. The increase wasn’t a small one either–the firm increased its revenue outlook to the range of $227-$230 million, much higher than the initial guidance calling for revenue in the range of $190-$205 million. Gross margins are expected to be around 50%, which will be a modest improvement from the previous quarter. Though no company ever likes to see demand cuts from one of its largest customers, it doesn’t appear that the cut will have much impact on Synaptics. The firm provides technology for all sizes of touch screen experiences, and it … Read more

Qualcomm’s Growth Trajectory Is Impressive and Supported by Numerous Secular Trends

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Image Source: Qualcomm Inc – 2019 Analyst Day Presentation By Callum Turcan There is a lot to like about Qualcomm Inc (QCOM), especially after the company reached a truce with Apple Inc (AAPL) in 2019 and resolved a dispute with China’s Huawei in 2020. Both agreements involved Qualcomm signing long-term licensing deals with those companies. The firm has a dominant position in cellular 5G modem and radio frequency (‘RF’) technology, and we don’t expect this lucrative industry position to change anytime soon. Qualcomm is a holding in Valuentum’s Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio thanks to its strong competitive advantages, healthy balance sheet, asset-light operations, considerable free cash flow generating capacity, and of course, its long-term dividend growth potential. Qualcomm’s shares yield ~1.8% at … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more