NVRO

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Nevro: Volatility Amps Up

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Image Source: Nevro Investor Relations Underscoring the volatile nature of small-cap healthcare companies, shareholders at Nevro are going through a rough period of volatility as it attempts to carve out a larger share for its proprietary pain relief products. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways The small-cap medical device market remains a volatile area of the market. Volatility pertaining to the patent estate of Nevro’s Key SCS products has led to a wild ride for shareholders. We have identified some key personnel issues that make us uneasy towards the future path of the company. We feel the path forward remains challenging as we wait for a new sales leader to emerge. Introduction- Who is Nevro? Nevro (NVRO) is far from … Read more

Follow Up on Loxo Oncology, Clovis Oncology, and Nevro

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We like to write about a wide range of ideas in the financial markets, even if such ideas may be well beyond the high end of our own risk spectrum. Our writings on the smaller, high-growth (and riskier) ideas in healthcare/biotech, for example, remain an attempt to draw attention to some of the fantastic innovation helping to reshape treatment paradigms. Let’s follow up on some of the high-risk companies in the healthcare/biotech arena that we previously highlighted. By Alexander J. Poulos Loxo Oncology Scores a Major Partnership Image shown: Loxo is bouncing off of support levels following its “gap higher” earlier this year. This looks bullish. Chart as of December 10. In July of this year, we provided a detailed … Read more

Prepared Remarks From Nelson Exclusive Conference Call June 30

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Read President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s prepared remarks for the yearly roundup conference call, held for Nelson Exclusive members. If you would like to subscribe to the Nelson Exclusive publication, please learn more about the publication here. The Nelson Exclusive publication does not reflect real performance. Performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you very much for joining us on the first conference call for members of the Nelson Exclusive publication. The first year of the publication has surely been an exciting one for all involved. When I first wrote the introductory letter of the Nelson Exclusive on July 1, 2016, we were well-aware the market had laid down the gauntlet for this publication. … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Nevro: An Exciting But Risky Medtech Idea in the Early Stages of Its Growth

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Image Source: Nevro Innovation continues to thrive in the medical field. The rapid aging of the industrialized world’s population bodes well for rising demand. Let’s look at a promising med tech idea, which we believe offers explosive growth in the field of Neuromodulation. It’s a risky one though. By Alexander J. Poulos Introduction We are interested in the growth prospects of Nevro (NVRO), a med tech idea specializing in the field of Neuromodulation. Neuromodulation is the use of electrical impulses to stimulate the nervous system. Nevro’s key product is the Senza Spinal Cord Stimulation (SCS) system, which offers relief from chronic pain by stimulating the nervous tissue found in the spinal cord to reduce or entirely block the perception of … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more