MSFT

The “Hierarchy” of Valuentum Idea Generation

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Let’s talk about this hierarchy of idea generation in this note. —  A version of this article was sent to members previously. New content has been added.  — Note: We continue to work to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio in our work, and we are evaluating expanding our update cycle to half-year periods to better bolster the signaling aspects of the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI). In our widely-read case study (see here), the VBI showed its ability to rank equity returns over a forward 12-month period, and we think a migration to less-frequent updating may make the most sense to better capture the forward-looking dynamics of the system. We think this will help weed out false breakouts and other noise that could be harmful. You shouldn’t think of … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Governance: The G in ESG Investing

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By Valuentum Analysts No discussion of ESG investing would be complete without addressing the role of corporate governance (“stewardship”) in equity investing. As with the other aspects of ESG investing, corporate governance covers a lot of ground. It can include pretty much anything related to how a company is run, including leadership, executive compensation, audits and accounting, and shareholder rights. These areas are just the tip of the iceberg, however.  A company with good corporate governance is one that is run well with the proper incentives and with all stakeholders in mind, from employees to suppliers to customers to shareholders and beyond. Good corporate governance practices decrease the risk to investors as it cuts through conflicts of interest, misuse of … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week September 18

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 18. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Alaris Royalty (ALARF): now CAD 0.31 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.29. Ardagh Group (ARD): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. BIOQUAL (BIOQ): now $1.10 per share annual dividend, was $0.70. Brady (BRC): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2175. Canadian Banc Corp (CNDCF): now CAD 0.0619 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.0534. Citizens Financial Services (CZFS): now $0.46 per share … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 20

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 20. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          ACRES Commercial Realty Series C Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (ACR.PR.C): now $0.6989 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.5391. Amphenol (APH): now $0.165 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.110. Andlauer Healthcare (ANDHF): now CAD 0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.10. Argan (AGX): now $0.375 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.300. Artis Real Estate Investment Trust PFD SER E (AX.PR.E:CA): now CAD 0.445 per share … Read more

Our Thoughts on Rackspace and Zoom Video Communications

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Image Source: Rackspace Technology Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation The appeal of the SaaS space is that these types of companies are asset-light and are light on capital expenditures, potentially allowing for meaningful free cash flows if scale is achieved. Secular growth tailwinds underpin their free cash flow growth trajectories, and the pandemic has accelerated changes that were already underway long before COVID-19 came into the picture. We appreciate that Rackspace is beginning to pay down its net debt load, though more work needs to be done on that front. Zoom Video Communications posted truly impressive results; however, we caution that there are many competitors in the live online video chat arena and staying on top … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more

5 Years Strong!

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Image Source: Andy Maguire By Brian Nelson, CFA This month was an important one for our investment research firm, Valuentum, and its flagship newsletter, the Best Ideas Newsletter. The June 2016 edition means that we have now surpassed the 5-year anniversary of the inception of this newsletter’s portfolio (page 8). This is a critical time horizon that we and many others believe is a good one to assess the quality of any money manager. Money managers can be lucky or unlucky over very short periods of time, as in the case of perhaps a 12-24 month period, but those that can generate and retain outperformance over a 5-year period and longer typically are doing a lot of things right, even … Read more