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How Some Members Use Valuentum’s Investment Services

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Thank you for your membership to Valuentum. We serve a wide variety of investors, including dividend growth investors, value investors, and pure Valuentum investors, among others. Many different types of investors and professionals use our research and financial analysis in a whole host of applications from individual stock-selection to the evaluation of closed-end funds to an overlay in a money-management setting and beyond. We wanted to make sure that you know that, if you’re a dividend growth or income investor, that there are others that use our website to utilize the Valuentum process, fair value estimates and other metrics. Similarly, if you’re a practitioner of the Valuentum system, I wanted to make sure that you are … Read more

Sonos Expected to Continue Growing Rapidly; Margin Concerns Remain Key Issue

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Image Source: Sonos Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation Executive Summary: Sonos Inc’s financial performance staged an impressive turnaround in fiscal 2021. The company exited fiscal 2021 with a $640 million net cash position and generated $208 million in free cash flow that fiscal year. Sonos is leveraging its financial strength by buying back its stock. The firm is also considering potential M&A activities that could be used to enhance its growth runway, with an eye towards the potential for Sonos to expand into the premium wireless headphone space. Sonos forecasts that it will grow its revenues by double-digits annually in fiscal 2022, though its margins are expected to face moderate headwinds this fiscal year. Shares … Read more

Microsoft Is Buying Activision On Way to Becoming Video Game Giant

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Image Shown: Microsoft Corporation is buying Activision Blizzard Inc, the largest buyout for a US tech firm ever. Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – January 2022 IR Presentation covering its acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc By Callum Turcan On January 18, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) made history by making an all-cash offer to purchase Activision Blizzard Inc (ATVI) for $95 per share. The boards of both companies have already approved the deal. Inclusive of Activision’s net cash position, the deal is worth $68.7 billion which makes it the largest buyout ever for a US tech firm according to CNBC. This deal is expected to close in fiscal 2023 (Microsoft’s fiscal year ends in June). Once it closes, assuming the deal pasts antitrust … Read more

Roblox Goes Public; Strong Balance Sheet and Expected Free Cash Flow

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Image Source: Roblox Corporation – S-1/A SEC Filing Executive Summary: Roblox Corporation recently went public through a direct listing on March 10, 2021. The video game platform company has an extensive growth runway with multiple avenues to further expand its business. We are impressed with its free cash flow generating abilities, pristine balance sheet, and strong growth rates of late. Roblox’s outlook for 2021 indicates its growth story is expected to continue this year in earnest. Capital appreciation seeking investors should take a deeper look at Roblox, though we caution that its co-founder, CEO, and chairman controls most of the company’s voting power. By Callum Turcan 2021 is already shaping up to be a huge year for initial public offerings … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Sonos Showing Signs of Life

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Image Shown: Shares of Sonos Inc are showing signs of life in 2020 after its poor showing in the quarters that followed its initial public offering back in August 2018. By Callum Turcan Shares of the audio streaming services and wireless home audio products company Sonos Inc (SONO) are starting to show signs of life after their poor showing in the quarters that followed its initial public offering back in August 2018. More recently, shares of SONO have started to surge higher after the firm reported fourth quarter and full year earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended October 3, 2020) on November 18. The company smashed past consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, though most importantly, Sonos provided very promising guidance … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

Microsoft Soars, Strong Revenue Growth Continues Unabated

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Image Shown: Microsoft Corporation put up a solid fiscal third quarter earnings report and we continue to be big fans of the name. Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – Power Point Earnings Presentation Covering the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2022 By Callum Turcan On April 26, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2022 (period ended March 31, 2022) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of MSFT jumped higher by ~4%-5% in afterhours trading on April 26 as investors cheered on the good news and its promising near term outlook. Microsoft’s cloud-oriented products and services were a bright spot in the fiscal third quarter and underpinned its impressive pricing power. The firm was able to stay … Read more