EFX

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

Top Research and Ideas You May Have Missed

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Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don’t believe Warren Buffett’s “style” is out of favor? By Brian Nelson, CFA I need to make sure that you’re aware of something very important. The media and perhaps many investment professionals define the concept of “value” as companies with low price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and the concept of “growth” as companies with high price-to-book ratios. This definition of “value” and “growth” and their corresponding returns have been magnified in writings throughout the media and across quantitative research, even in prestigious journals. Warren Buffett has been rallying against most quantitative applications and how “growth” and “value” are defined in popular media and quantitative research for decades.  Here’s one of the Oracle’s most … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 12

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending February 12. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AGL Resources, Inc. (GAS): now $0.53 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.51. Allstate (ALL): now $0.33 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. American International Group (AIG): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Aubum National Bancorporation (AUBN): now $0.225 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Bank of Botetourt (BORT): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Canadian General Investments, Limited (CGRIF): now C$0.16 per … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 10

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending February 10. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 3M Company (MMM): now $1.175 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.11. Alaska Air (ALK): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.275. Allstate (ALL): now $0.37 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.33. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. Baldwin & Lyons (BWINA): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. Bank of Botetourt (BORT): now $0.14 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

Industrial Bellwethers A Mixed Bag: GE, BA, CAT, DE, UNP

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Image Source: Caterpillar Inc – May 2022 Caterpillar Investor Day Presentation By Callum Turcan In this article, we cover the industrial landscape by digging into the recent financial and operational performance of General Electric Company (GE), Boeing Co (BA), Caterpillar Inc (CAT), Deere & Company (DE), and Union Pacific Corporation (UNP). Common themes include robust demand for their offerings, healthy order backlogs, and meaningful pricing power, though headwinds include substantial inflationary pressures, supply chain hurdles, and in certain instances, geopolitical tensions. General Electric will soon separate into three different publicly traded companies, and on a consolidated basis the firm is doing much better than years past. In 2022 and on a non-GAAP basis, General Electric is guiding for a 150+ … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 14

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 14. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 1st Constitution Bancorp (FCCY): now $0.09 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.07. Agnico Eagle (AEM): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.17. AllianceBernstein (AB): now $0.85 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.63. Amtek (AME): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. Ares Management (ARES): now $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. Auburn National (AUBN): now $0.255 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.250. Barrick … Read more

The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more