CSR

REITs Will Likely Continue To Underperform

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Stock prices and returns are in part a function of the cash-based sources of intrinsic value: net cash on the balance sheet and future expectations of free cash flow. Though there are many ways to slice and dice a company with respect to equity analysis, to arrive at an intrinsic value estimate of a firm, it generally comes down to these two important cash-based dynamics. Due to the nature of their business models, most REITs have lofty net debt positions, and many are investing in real estate at a pace that is faster than that which they are generating operating cash flow. One good example of the trouble brewing on many a REIT’s cash flow statement … Read more

ICYMI: Let’s Play Devil’s Advocate: What’s the Bear Case for Realty Income?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA We like Realty Income Corp. (O) a lot, but it’s not hard to see that the REIT could potentially have all the makings of a black swan. For one, the stock is loved by almost everyone–REIT investors, income investors, and dividend growth investors alike. Many are simply enamored by its monthly dividend, which it has raised nearly 120 times since it was listed on the NYSE in 1994. Over its 54-year history, the REIT has paid 632 consecutive monthly dividends, too. There’s a ton of things to like about Realty Income, but for this note, let’s build and examine the bear case, one that can be broken into three pillars: 1) its retail exposure, 2) its … Read more

Why Are the Dividends of REITs So Risky?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Not all REIT dividends are safe. Many REITs remain capital-market dependent, and some office REITs, retail REITs, and healthcare REITs may be difficult places to generate dependable long-term income in the coming decades, in our view. Office REIT SL Green (SLG) recently cut its payout 13% on December 5, 2022, while another office REIT Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) cut its dividend 29% on January 18, 2023. These are just two of the latest high-profile REIT dividend cuts, and there may be more to come. Contrary to popular opinion, the REIT sector has not been a great source of dependable, reliable income, particularly during the COVID-19 crisis. Five REITs cut their dividends in 2019: Medalist Diversified REIT … Read more

REITs May Continue to Face Pressure

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Image: The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. By Brian Nelson, CFA Times are tough for equity REITs (VNQ) and mortgage REITs (REM), with the VNQ and REM down 25% and 30%, respectively, so far in 2022. This is against a backdrop of Valuentum’s simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio that are doing far better. The lesson in 2022, … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week September 3

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 3. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AMMO, Inc. 8.75% PFD SER A (POWWP): now $0.2412 per share quarterly dividend. ASE Technology (ASX): now $0.218 per share dividend, was NT$2.4987. Atrion (ATRI): now $1.95 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.75. Capital Southwest (CSWC): now $0.47 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.44. Centerspace (CSR): now $0.72 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.70. ChoiceOne Financial Services (COFS): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week March 4

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 4. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week      Acushnet (GOLF): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.17. American Financial (AFG): now $2.00 per share special dividend, was $0.56. Barclays (BCS): now GPB 0.04 per share dividend, was GPB 0.02. Best Buy (BBY): now $0.88 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.70. Black Diamond Group (BDIMF): now CAD 0.015 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.013. Blackhawk Bancorp (BHWB): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more