BWA

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more

GM and Ford Tune Up Operations for the Future of Automaking

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Image source: GM first-quarter earnings report The US auto behemoths continue to place a greater importance on efficient operations and the health of their bottom lines as the industry may be reaching a relative peak in terms of light vehicle production for this economic cycle and as the future of the auto landscape remains uncertain. By Kris Rosemann Key Takeaways Both GM and Ford are keeping a keen eye on the future of the evolving auto and personal transportation markets. We continue to like shares of GM relative to Ford, even as we say we like the direction in which Ford appears to be heading. GM’s shares are trading at an ultra-low earnings multiple, and it pays a very strong … Read more

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good

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Valuentum’s President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds. Transcript: << Valuentum’s Best Ideas On behalf of the Valuentum team, I’d like to present to you our prepared remarks for the Valuentum Exclusive conference call for 2021. It is both an honor and a privilege to share our team’s work with you, and I personally am very grateful for your continued interest … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 28

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 28. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          AMG Advanced Metallurgical (AMVMF): now EUR 0.40 per share interim dividend, was EUR 0.30. Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): now $0.43 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Archrock (AROC): now $0.155 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.150. Baker Hughes (BKR): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. Boise Cascade (BCC): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company PFD CONV 2 … Read more

General Motors Cuts Guidance on Higher Input Costs

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Simulated newsletter portfolio idea General Motors cut its full-year guidance due to higher than expected commodity cost increases and devaluation of key currencies in South America. Peers Ford and Fiat Chrysler also lowered 2018 guidance measures following a tough second quarter for the group. By Kris Rosemann The July 25 trading session was a tough one for simulated newsletter portfolio idea General Motors (GM) as it faced meaningful external pressures on its business and lowered guidance for 2018. Greater-than-expected impacts from rising commodity prices and currency devaluations in Brazil and Argentina were the primary drivers behind the guidance cut. However, some of those pressures may be easing as President Trump has reportedly agreed to work with the European Commission in … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more