AXP

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

American Express Carries Meaningful Credit Risk

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Image Source: American Express Company – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan At Valuentum, we are very bullish on the growth trajectory of high-quality payment processing, payment solutions, and financial technology firms. That’s why we include PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) as top-weighted holdings in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. However, please note that what makes those firms appealing is the limited or lack of exposure to credit risk. Visa carries no credit risk and generates revenues through fees collected on transactions conducted with Visa-branded cards, and while PayPal possesses some credit risk, that risk is rather small relative to its overall business. Both firms enable investors to capitalize on the shift to … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 26

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 26. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Acerinox, S.A. (ANIOY): now $0.1219 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.1159. Acuity Brands (AYI): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.13. ADT (ADT): now $0.055 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.035. Air Products and Chemicals (APD): now $1.77 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.75. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.705 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.6775. American Express (AXP): now $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 15

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 15. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AAON (AAON): now $0.19 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.16. Cardinal Health (CAH): now $0.4859 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.4811. Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB): now $7.25 per share semi-annual dividend, was $7.15. GDL Fund (GDL): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Israel Chemicals (ICL): now $0.023 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.018. iStar (STAR): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good

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Valuentum’s President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds. Transcript: << Valuentum’s Best Ideas On behalf of the Valuentum team, I’d like to present to you our prepared remarks for the Valuentum Exclusive conference call for 2021. It is both an honor and a privilege to share our team’s work with you, and I personally am very grateful for your continued interest … Read more

Nelson on Bogle, Part I

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“The kind of commentary that makes broad generalizations about expectations of future returns is exactly why people are so eager to get into passive investment strategies. Since the 1920s, it seems as though the individual investor has assumed the stock market was rigged or impossible for average Joes to figure out, but instead of the “I’ll get it next time” mentality that was present leading to the crash of ’29, individual investors have “evolved” to the point that now the idea is if you can’t beat the market, just buy the whole thing. Leaders like Bogle continue to take tremendous shortcuts in explaining forecasts, leaving the average investor like a student trying to copy math homework off a peer that … Read more