ARR

American Capital Agency Disappoints Again; Armour Residential Follows

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We’re still getting praises from our call on the mREIT industry that shocked the investment world and literally put our research firm on the map (click here for that). We outlined how other research firms were so wrong in this piece (link), and interestingly, we’re adding BAML today to the list of investment shops that led their advisor communities astray. Frankly, we’re honored to serve you, and we’re proud to have delivered on the correct research perspective. We’re not here to point out the pitfalls of others, but by pointing out this well-documented example, our goal is to continue to build your trust in us as a firm. Let’s take a look at the ongoing troubles the mREIT industry continues … Read more

American Capital Agency Loses $2.37 Per Share in Second Quarter

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As we have encouraged readers since the peak in September 2012, the mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) industry has myriad risks, and the marketing pitches indicating that their principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a US government sponsored entity (GSE) should not make investors feel safe. This dynamic has little bearing on the underlying trajectory of fundamentals and a mortgage REIT’s book value, the key valuation driver and the major impetus behind share price movements in the space. During the second quarter (results released Monday), American Capital Agency (AGNC) failed at its principal objective to preserve net asset value, as book value plunged to $25.51 per share from $28.93 per share in the previous sequential quarter (a $3.42 move). … Read more

Mortgage REITs Are Still Hurting

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With QE Infinity potentially ending in mid-2014 and American Capital Agency (AGNC) slashing its quarterly dividend today (now $1.05 per share, was $1.25), mortgage REITs are still hurting. Consistent with our thesis on the group, dividend payments at a variety of industry constituents are not sustainable. American Capital Mortgage (MTGE) also cut its dividend today, while Two Harbors (TWO) lowered its quarterly payout a couple weeks after our industry thesis hit the wires. Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency, Armour Residential (ARR) and Western Asset Management (WMC) were all down more than 2% today. With Fed Chairmen Ben Bernanke announcing potential tapering in 2013 and a potential end to mortgage-backed security purchases in mid-2014, the 10-year Treasury yield has moved nearly … Read more

The Mortgage REIT Business Doesn’t Work…

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Key Takeaways: ·         The good times are over for mortgage REITs. o       Mortgage market dynamics are inherently difficult to predict. o       A flatter yield curve has negatively impacted net interest rate spread income across the entire mortgage REIT universe. We’re already seeing deteriorating gross ROE’s from some of the largest industry constituents. o       The Fed has only caused a marginal tightening in mortgage spreads, and in our view, a marginal widening due to reduced Fed activity (if/when it happens) is perhaps the best-case scenario as it relates to spread income for the group. A continuation of spread tightening is likely the base-case scenario, which is negative for the group. o       Net interest rate spread income and gross ROE’s will only be materially enhanced … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 15

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending December 15. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Abbott Laboratories (ABT): now $0.55 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.51. Aecon Group Inc. (ARE:CA): now CAD 0.185 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.175. Acme United (ACU): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. AES (AES): now $0.1725 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1659. Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX): now $0.2225 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2200. American Eagle Outfitters (AEO): now $0.125 … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending July 5

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 5. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Bank OZK (OZK): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust (BDJ): now $0.0500 per share monthly dividend, was $0.0467. BlackRock Floating Rate Income Trust (BGT): now $0.0668 per share monthly dividend, was $0.0618. BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT): now $0.5535426 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.3449262. Cardinal Energy (CRLFF): now CAD 0.015 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.01. … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 20

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 20. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week ALPS ETF Trust – ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (SDOG): now $0.3844 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.3797. Ameris Bancorp (ABCB): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Dave & Buster’s (PLAY): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. DTF Tax-Free Income (DTF): now $0.04 per share monthly dividend, was $0.035. ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. … Read more