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Stock Market Outlook for 2021
By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 17
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 17. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AllianceBernstein (AB): now $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.64. Allstate (ALL): now $0.89 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.85. Analog Devices (ADI): now $0.86 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.76. Annaly Capital Management 6.95% PFD SER F (NLY.PF): now $0.6076 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.5417. Auburn National (AUBN): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.265. Banc of California (BANC): now $0.10 … Read more
The Best Years Are Ahead
By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more
Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market
A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 5
Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending February 5. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 3M (MMM): now $1.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.025. A-Mark (AMRK): now $0.07 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Allegion (ALLE): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.17. AvalonBay Communities (AVB): now $1.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.25. … Read more
Answering Some Questions from Our Members
Image Source: Eric By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA Let’s answer some questions we received recently from our members. Please note that the wording of some of the questions was modified somewhat for clarity. Question: What do you think about Moderna (MRNA), as their mRNA technology can be used for far more than just Covid-19 vaccines? Answer: We are simply amazed at how fast the pharmaceutical industry, in conjunction with various partners and government programs (Operation Warp Speed and others), discovered a safe and viable vaccine for the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’). Moderna was key to making that possible after its COVID-19 vaccine received emergency approval from the US FDA in December 2020. With a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%, Moderna really was … Read more
Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way
Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you. 2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise. But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term. We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more
Which Sectors Are Leading the Market Higher? And Why Is This Important?
Missed the ’13 Most Important Steps to Understand the Stock Market’? Click here. Demand academic evidence regarding the efficacy of the Valuentum process? Click here. Tobias J. Moskowitz and Mark Grinblatt documented the “strong and prevalent momentum effect in industry components of stock returns which accounts for much of the individual stock momentum anomaly” in their scholarly article published in the Journal of Finance, ‘Do Industries Explain Momentum’ (download here; stable link here; updated by Fraulo and Nguyen here). Moskowitz and Grinblatt also concluded that “industry momentum investment strategies, which buy stocks from past winning industries and sell stocks from past losing industries, appear highly profitable.” Such findings are consistent with the ‘Case for the Valuentum Style of Investing,’ and … Read more
ICYMI — Shocking?!?! Utility Dividends Aren’t Always Safe
There is plenty to like about the business models of utilities. Regulated utilities, for one, are monopolies in their operating regions, providing an essential service to businesses and customers. This, coupled with the fact that the returns of regulated utilities are set by a regulatory body within a defined ratemaking process, causes the sector to be full of operators that boast steadily-growing earnings that appear to be materially dependable. As we note in this article, however, a surprisingly large number of utilities in our coverage universe have cut their dividends in the past. Are the dividends of utilities as safe as many make them out to be? Let’s dig in. By Valuentum Analysts We frequently receive questions as to why … Read more