The Mortgage REIT Business Doesn’t Work…
Key Takeaways: · The good times are over for mortgage REITs. o Mortgage market dynamics are inherently difficult to predict. o A flatter yield curve has negatively impacted net interest rate spread income across the entire mortgage REIT universe. We’re already seeing deteriorating gross ROE’s from some of the largest industry constituents. o The Fed has only caused a marginal tightening in mortgage spreads, and in our view, a marginal widening due to reduced Fed activity (if/when it happens) is perhaps the best-case scenario as it relates to spread income for the group. A continuation of spread tightening is likely the base-case scenario, which is negative for the group. o Net interest rate spread income and gross ROE’s will only be materially enhanced … Read more