REGI

How Some Members Use Valuentum’s Investment Services

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Thank you for your membership to Valuentum. We serve a wide variety of investors, including dividend growth investors, value investors, and pure Valuentum investors, among others. Many different types of investors and professionals use our research and financial analysis in a whole host of applications from individual stock-selection to the evaluation of closed-end funds to an overlay in a money-management setting and beyond. We wanted to make sure that you know that, if you’re a dividend growth or income investor, that there are others that use our website to utilize the Valuentum process, fair value estimates and other metrics. Similarly, if you’re a practitioner of the Valuentum system, I wanted to make sure that you are … Read more

Chevron Buys Renewable Energy Group

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Image Shown: Chevron Corporation is acquiring Renewable Energy Group Inc through an all-cash deal that was announced at the end of February 2022. Image Source: Renewable Energy Group Inc – October 2020 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On February 28, Chevron Corporation (CVX) announced it would acquire Renewable Energy Group Inc (REGI) through an all-cash transaction. The energy giant is paying $61.50 per share in cash for each share of the renewable fuel producer through a deal with a total enterprise value of $2.75 billion when including Renewable Energy Group’s $0.4 billion net cash position. During the second half of 2022, the transaction is expected to close. Overview  Renewable Energy Group produces biofuels with a heavy emphasis on biodiesel and … Read more

Valuentum’s Theses on Best Ideas Chevron and Exxon Mobil Playing Out

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By Callum Turcan Raw energy resources pricing has surged higher during the past year with room to run. The global energy complex is on the rebound as demand for crude oil and refined petroleum products is steadily recovering from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. As demand for electricity and heating needs held up well during the pandemic, liquified natural gas prices (‘LNG’) put up a strong year in 2021 and remain elevated. The OPEC+ cartel is committed to slowly phasing out its crude oil supply curtailment agreement first enacted in 2020, effectively limiting growth in global oil supplies at a time when demand is rebounding at a brisk pace. We view the near-term outlook for the global energy … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

The Real Reason Why Moats Matter

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  Image Source: Ray in Manila Valuentum: We’re here today with Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Nelson to talk about the concept of an economic moat. You think the concept of an economic moat is one of the most misunderstood topics in finance. Can you elaborate? Nelson: Sure, of course. An economic moat was first coined by the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, to describe significant and sustainable competitive advantages. Now, if you ask any business, they’re going to tell you that they have an economic moat of some sort, whether it’s some low-cost position or intangible asset or an impenetrable network effect. Investors today are at a disadvantage of misinformation given just how widespread the term moat or … Read more

Energy Sector In Shambles, Looks to Recover But Headwinds Persist

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Image Source: ConocoPhillips – November 2019 Analyst and Investor Meeting IR Presentation Executive Summary: Though raw energy resource pricing is on the rebound, the outlook for the oil and gas industry remains stressed. Global demand for oil and related refined petroleum products remains subdued due to headwinds generated by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The OPEC+ oil cartel has responded by pledging to keep a significant amount of oil output off the market for an extended time. However, raw energy resource prices need to go much higher and be sustained at elevated levels before the space could become attractive from a longer-term perspective. In our view, the US upstream industry (specifically those in the shale patch) need WTI to move … Read more

Surveying the Clean Energy Landscape for Ideas

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Image Source: American Electric Power Company Inc (AEP) – January 2021 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan There’s a lot of interest in clean energy these days! Though our favorite ideas within a portfolio context are always the ideas within the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and the Exclusive publication, we also highlight interesting ideas via our articles that we publish on our website. [For instance, we recently published work that covered the electric vehicle (‘EV’) industry; members can check out that article here.] In this article, let’s dig deep into the clean energy space. We’ll talk more about: 1) Ameresco (AMRC), one of the green energy ideas we highlighted in … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

Biofuel Producer Renewable Energy Group Is Worth a Look

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Image Shown: A geographical overview of Renewable Energy Group’s operational “biorefineries” in the US and Germany. Image Source: Renewable Energy Group Inc – October 2020 IR Presentation Executive Summary: Renewable Energy Group is an intriguing biofuel maker with operational “biorefineries” located across the US and in Europe (specifically Germany). The company’s operations are supported by an extensive distribution network that is primarily built upon supply agreements with third parties, though Renewable Energy Group opened its own branded fuel location in 2019 for the first time. Shares of REGI have been on an upward tear of late, likely due to growing investor optimism towards green energy firms, in our view, as the new Biden administration in the US has made it … Read more