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ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 22

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 22. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week BBX Capital (BBX): now $0.0125 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.01. Canadian Banc Corp (CNDCF): now CAD 0.0956 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.093. CareTrust REIT (CTRE): now $0.225 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.205. CBTX (CBTX): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Cervus Equipment Corporation (CSQPF): now CAD 0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.10. Children’s Place Retail Stores (PLCE): now … Read more

Digital Realty Remains Acquisitive, Well-Positioned

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Image shown: The performance of Digital Realty Trust’s stock since the beginning of 2016. The data center REIT continues to be on the acquisition hunt, and momentum in its business couldn’t be stronger, in our opinion. Its debt levels are elevated, but not unlike that of other REITs that are dependent on the external capital markets. We continue to like the strength of Digital Realty’s end market and think the REIT is fundamentally well-positioned to capture increased demand. By Brian Nelson, CFA On the heels of Digital Realty Trust’s (DLR) increased guidance for core funds from operations (FFO) for 2018 to the range of $6.50-$6.60 from $6.45-$6.60 when it reported first-quarter results in April, the REIT in mid-June issued $650 … Read more

Understanding the Phenomenon of “Price Risk” in High Yield

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  Image Source: Julien Carnot We want you to learn about a unique risk innate to the high yield space like the back of your hand. We’ll explain the “information contained in prices” and talk about what you should be on the lookout for, the “avalanche effect.” Order the High Yield Dividend Newsletter here. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — I received a question from a dear member of ours, and I think it may be helpful that I share the response. The question had to do with why we may be ultra-cautious on high-yielding stocks that are facing considerable price declines. The risk described below makes the high yield space uniquely different than other equity strategies, in our view, … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more