PLNT

There Will Be Volatility

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Last year, 2022, was a big test for equity investors, and the downside volatility that we witnessed during the year wasn’t comfortable, to say the least. Following the COVID-19 crash and rebound during 2020, and then the market surge in 2021, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say many investors’ heads are probably still spinning from all the volatility witnessed to start this decade. That said, part of what we’ve been warning about the past few years with respect to the equity market, especially in Value Trap, is that the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (e.g. quant, machine/algorithmic trading, etc.) will only lead to more and more market volatility, so while we were somewhat surprised by last … Read more

Walmart Warns: “Prices Are Still High and There Is Considerable Pressure on the Consumer”

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  Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA As we wrote in “The Fed ‘Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” in early January, the trade-down trends that we’re seeing in big box retail and with groceries, more generally, are interesting. Inflation started to accelerate with food-at-home prices moving aggressively higher in early 2022, and consumers have been trading down to better value. It probably wasn’t until egg prices soared, however — driven in part by a shortage of egg laying chickens (not just inflationary pressures) – that tipped everyday consumers to budget more cautiously, and the largest big box retailer in Walmart (WMT) is seeing this impact first-hand. Here’s what’s happening on the ground, per Walmart’s CEO Doug McMillon on the … Read more

Nike’s Gross Margin Falls, Inventory Leaps in Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022

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Image Source: Valuentum By Valuentum Analysts Very few other companies, if any other, have built such deep, personal connections with the consumer as Nike, Inc. (NKE) has, let alone the tremendous brand strength, and its endorsement deal with LeBron James gives it yet another top-notch globally marketable superstar. Nike’s annual free cash flows averaged ~$4.0 billion from fiscal 2019-2021, versus its ~$1.6 billion in dividend obligations in fiscal 2021, and it had a solid net cash position on the books at the end of fiscal 2022. The sustained strength seen at its digital and direct-to-consumer operations supports Nike’s outlook. Nike’s Dividend Cushion ratio is impressive; however, its ~1.1% dividend yield is relatively modest. From its namesake to Jordan Brand to … Read more

Peloton Makes a Bet on US Manufacturing

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Image Shown: Shares of Peloton Interactive surged higher during 2020. The firm recently announced it would acquire an exercise equipment manufacturer based in the US. As demand for Peloton’s products has been incredibly strong of late, the firm has had trouble keeping up, which in turn has led to delayed deliveries of its “premium” exercise bikes. This acquisition is expected to help alleviate those concerns. By Callum Turcan The exercise bike and digitally-oriented exercise training service provider Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) announced it was acquiring Precor, an exercise equipment manufacturer, for $420 million in cash (before closing adjustments) on December 21. Peloton aims to complete the transaction by early 2021 (calendar year), and by the end of 2021, the goal … Read more

Dick’s Sporting Goods Finds E-Commerce Success

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Image Shown: Shares of Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc rallied by ~16% during normal trading hours on August 26 after reporting stellar same-store sales growth. By Callum Turcan On August 26, Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended August 1, 2020) that beat consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-lines. Driving this outperformance was Dick’s Sporting Goods’ 20.7% year-over-year increase in same-store sales as its e-commerce sales rose by 194%, which includes sales conducted through its curbside contactless pickup option. E-commerce sales represented ~30% of the sporting goods retailer’s total sales last fiscal quarter. Average ticket sizes and the number of transactions both grew last fiscal quarter according to management commentary included in the … Read more

Warren: Four Ways to Play the Market at This Juncture

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Image Source: Daniel Lobo In this piece, we examine where the economy and stock markets have been recently, where we are now, and where we are going next. We also highlight four key ways to play this volatile market. We think this is a helpful way to think about overall portfolio construction, especially so that one does not overly expose themselves to a particular set of risks that could come to fruition—like an extended downturn in the economy or a rapid discovery of a vaccine for Covid-19 on the other hand. By Matthew Warren Macro Matters When you turn on the television to the stock channel, there is a tremendous amount of discussion about where we are now and where … Read more

Valuentum Exclusive Yearly Round Up

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Select the following link to access the Annual Exclusive Call. Select HERE to Access the Exclusive Call Recording ———- Transcript Provided Below. President of Investment Research Brian Nelson: Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you for your attendance. Today marks three years since we first launched the Exclusive publication. The Exclusive is our premiere offering for sophisticated investors and builds upon our successes of the past, not only in establishing one of the first methodologies that successfully blends enterprise valuation with behavioral valuation and technical and momentum indicators, but also in making such a process available to individuals, financial advisors and institutional investors in full transparency. The Exclusive publication is in many ways an extension of the strong performance of both the … Read more

Earnings Roundup: Pinterest and Peloton

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Image Source: Peloton Interactive Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Shareholder Letter By Callum Turcan The outlook for the world economy, keeping near-term headwinds in mind, remains bright as global health authorities are actively working towards putting an end to the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic largely through ongoing vaccine distribution efforts. As vaccine production scales up, widespread distribution efforts will become a much easier task. We’re continuing with our earnings commentary in this note by covering a social media contender and an upstart exercise company. Pinterest (PINS) On February 4, social media contender Pinterest Inc (PINS) reported fourth quarter earnings for 2020 that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Most of Pinterest’s revenues come from its digital advertising business, … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more