LIND

Booking Holdings Is a Net-Cash-Rich, Free-Cash-Flow Generating Powerhouse!

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Image: Booking Holdings remains an asset-light, free-cash-flow generating powerhouse. By Brian Nelson, CFA On November 2, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Booking Holdings (BKNG) reported excellent third-quarter results with revenue advancing 21.3% and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in ahead of the consensus forecast. People around the world continue to book travel and accommodations as pent-up demand from the COVID-19 pandemic continues to showcase itself in Booking Holdings’ results. Gross travel bookings advanced 24% (21% on a constant-currency basis) in the quarter on a year-over-year basis, and the firm converted this strong demand into a 51% increase in net income. We like the asset-light, free-cash-flow generating nature of Booking Holdings, and we continue to believe it belongs in the Best … Read more

Best Idea Booking Holdings Soars!

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Image: Booking Holdings’ free cash flow conversion is about as good as it gets. The company remains a key idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Booking Holdings By Brian Nelson, CFA We initiated a position in Booking Holdings (BKNG) in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio in June due in part to its extremely attractive valuation at that time, of which we highlighted graphically in this April 19 note. Booking Holdings’ price-to-fair value disconnect was rather large back in April following a huge fair value estimate increase around that time. Shares of the company have now surged past our fair value estimate of $3,164, as indicated in post-market trading following its fantastic second-quarter 2023 results, and we’re sticking … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

New Issue Airbnb’s Shares Pricing In Strong Recovery and Then Some

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Image Shown: Airbnb is losing money hand over fist while as it grows into its substantial market opportunity. Source: S-1. By Brian Nelson, CFA Rental platform Airbnb (ABNB) has been a part of the latest series of IPOs that have soared out of the gates recently. Shares went public at $68 per share December 10, and now the equity is trading at more than $148 per share at the time of this writing. For those that don’t know the story of Airbnb (AirBed & Breakfast), the concept started in 2007 when, after discovering that every hotel was sold out during an international design conference in San Francisco, the founders started renting airbeds in their apartment to conference attendees. Thirteen years have now … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Warren: Four Ways to Play the Market at This Juncture

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Image Source: Daniel Lobo In this piece, we examine where the economy and stock markets have been recently, where we are now, and where we are going next. We also highlight four key ways to play this volatile market. We think this is a helpful way to think about overall portfolio construction, especially so that one does not overly expose themselves to a particular set of risks that could come to fruition—like an extended downturn in the economy or a rapid discovery of a vaccine for Covid-19 on the other hand. By Matthew Warren Macro Matters When you turn on the television to the stock channel, there is a tremendous amount of discussion about where we are now and where … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more