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ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

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Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Engineering & Construction Industry

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Image Source: CBI Structure of the Engineering & Construction Industry Firms in the E&C industry design and construct facilities for customers across a variety of end markets. Participants generally have slim margins and use percentage-of-completion accounting, which can cause wild swings in profitability, especially on fixed-priced contracts when cost overruns occur. Firms that operate primarily under cost-reimbursable contracts tend to have lower risk profiles. Still, order trends can be volatile, and cash flow depends on projects in cyclical industries. Competition remains fierce, and industry consolidation won’t change existing rivalries much. We generally don’t like the group. We’ve optimized our coverage of industrial firms. They can be found here.

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds

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Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception. Though the book focuses more on the life and times of founder Jim Simons and dedicated only a page or two to the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), another quant fund that went belly-up during the late 1990s, it was nonetheless a thoroughly interesting and enjoyable read. But why I am bringing up one of the most successful quant … Read more

Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 27

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 27. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                Air Products and Chemicals (APD): now $1.75 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.62. Alliant Energy (LNT): now $0.4525 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.4275. American Express (AXP): now $0.60 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.52. Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.34. Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM): now $0.45 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.40. Archrock (AROC): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good

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Valuentum’s President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds. Transcript: << Valuentum’s Best Ideas On behalf of the Valuentum team, I’d like to present to you our prepared remarks for the Valuentum Exclusive conference call for 2021. It is both an honor and a privilege to share our team’s work with you, and I personally am very grateful for your continued interest … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of January 26

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 26. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Acerinox, S.A. (ANIOY): now $0.1219 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.1159. Acuity Brands (AYI): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.13. ADT (ADT): now $0.055 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.035. Air Products and Chemicals (APD): now $1.77 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.75. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.705 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.6775. American Express (AXP): now $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week January 28

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 28. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Accord Financial (ACCFF): now CAD 0.075 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.050. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Anthem (ANTM): now $1.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.13. Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT): now $0.34 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.33. Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM): now $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. Arrow Financial (AROW): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more