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Stock Market Outlook for 2021

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By Valuentum Analysts February 8, 2021 2020 was one for the history books. We covered our thoughts and reflections on the past year in our “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten” article (link here), and now we are looking towards the future. Global health authorities should be able to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic sooner than many had expected as several vaccines have already been improved for emergency use and several others appear increasingly likely to get approved. Global vaccine distribution activities are currently underway, and this should allow the world to slowly return to pre-pandemic activities. Before then, immense stimulus measures launched primarily in developed nations should support global economic activities until the public health crisis … Read more

PayPal and Visa Remain Attractive Long-Term Ideas

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Image Source: Visa Inc – Second Quarter of Fiscal 2022 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan The payment processing and payment solutions space is attractive. Companies operating in this industry have asset-light business models with relatively modest capital expenditure requirements to maintain a given level of revenues, making free cash flows easier to come by. Additionally, the industry’s growth outlook is incredibly bright and supported by secular tailwinds as the world continues to shift away from cash and towards other payment options (card, mobile apps, QR codes, online payment platforms). Our two favorite companies in this space are PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V), and we include both as ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Online spending … Read more

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022

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Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. But what about the Valuentum Buying Index ratings, themselves? How did they “perform” during 2022 in one of the worst years for stock market investors in history? Well, not as spectacular as we would have … Read more

Visa’s High Margin Business Reveals Consumer Spending Remains Resilient

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  Image: Visa has been a strong performer thus far in 2023.  By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 24, Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa (V) reported excellent fourth-quarter results for its fiscal 2023. Net revenues advanced 11% on a year-over-year basis, while non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP earnings per share leapt 18% and 21% year-over-year, respectively, in the period. For the fiscal year, Visa generated an impressive 64.4% operating margin. Payments volume increased 9% and cross-border volume advanced 16%, showcasing that the consumer remains very healthy thanks in part to low unemployment rates, despite concerns over higher mortgage costs, student loan repayments, and general economic uncertainty as savings accrued during the COVID-19 pandemic wane. We continue to be big … Read more

Valuentum’s June Best Ideas Newsletter

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Image: Page 49, June edition of American Library Association Booklist.   By Brian Nelson, CFA — Welcome new members!   Roughly 90% of active management is underperforming their benchmarks, after fees, over the trailing 15-year period ending 2018. It’s a sad story out there. Most active investors are performing backward-looking analysis, others are using short-cut multiple analysis to make decisions; still, others may be continuing down the path of thinking that may have gotten active management in trouble in the first place: theoretical quantitative finance.   The bedrock of finance, for example, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and its beta have been shown to explain little about stock market returns, yet it is still in finance textbooks and still on key … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of October 27

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending October 27. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          AbbVie (ABBV): now $1.55 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.48. Adecoagro (AGRO): now $0.1649 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.1626. American Electric Power (AEP): now $0.88 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.83. Amphenol (APH): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.21. Associated Banc-Corp (ASB): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.21. Atlantic Union Bank (AUB): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more