Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor
Let’s examine a number of reasons why we don’t prefer banking entities and take a look at recent performance from industry constituents. A challenging rate environment and declining mortgage originations offer key headwinds.
Early Wednesday morning, the Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA) announced that refinancing activity declined 20% from one week earlier. Adjusted for the Labor Day weekend, total mortgage applications dropped 13.5% from the previous week. Consistent with the dramatic upward movement in interest rates, refinancing activity is down 71% since it peaked during the week of May 3, 2013. Why Do We Monitoring Refinancing Activity? When homeowners refinance, a couple outcomes can occur that pump more dollars into the economy. First, with a refinanced mortgage, owners may choose to take equity out of the home, allowing for large purchases like vehicles or even home remodeling. CoreLogic recently reported that 2.5 million more residential properties have returned to positive equity in the second quarter … Read more
Quite a few firms raised their dividends during the week ending April 19. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week: Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.06. A.O. Smith (AOS): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Cardinal Financial (CFNL): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. CSX (CSX): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. Discover Financial Services (DFS): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. Donegal Group (DGICA): now $0.1275 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1225. El Paso Pipeline Partners (EPB): now $0.62 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.61. First Republic Bank (FRC): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Kinder Morgan (KMI): now $0.38 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more
Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don’t believe Warren Buffett’s “style” is out of favor? By Brian Nelson, CFA I need to make sure that you’re aware of something very important. The media and perhaps many investment professionals define the concept of “value” as companies with low price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and the concept of “growth” as companies with high price-to-book ratios. This definition of “value” and “growth” and their corresponding returns have been magnified in writings throughout the media and across quantitative research, even in prestigious journals. Warren Buffett has been rallying against most quantitative applications and how “growth” and “value” are defined in popular media and quantitative research for decades. Here’s one of the Oracle’s most … Read more
Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 23. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 1st Source (SRCE): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. Advance Auto Parts (AAP): now $1.00 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. AGCO (AGCO): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.16. Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.24. Avery Dennison (AVY): now $0.68 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.62. The Bank of Princeton (BPRN): now $0.18 per share … Read more
By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we know that forward-looking dividend analysis and opinion is all that matters for most income investors. That’s why we’ve provided the following screen of key constituents in the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) and their forward-looking Dividend Cushion ratio. After all, the past is just the past. The future is what counts. The SPDR S&P Dividend ETF is a fund that tracks the the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index, which is “designed to measure the performance of the highest dividend-yielding S&P Composite 1500 Index constituents that have followed a managed-dividends policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 20 consecutive years.” To access either the 16-page stock report or the dividend report of each firm in the following modified ‘Aristocrats’ … Read more
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 3. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX): now $0.165 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.145. American Campus Communities (ACC): now $0.47 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.46. Ames National Corporation (ATLO): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. Apple (AAPL): now $0.77 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.73. BP Midstream Partners (BPMP): now $0.3126 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.3015. Cal-Maine Foods (CALM): now $0.272 per share quarterly … Read more
A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more
Valuentum’s President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds. Transcript: << Valuentum’s Best Ideas On behalf of the Valuentum team, I’d like to present to you our prepared remarks for the Valuentum Exclusive conference call for 2021. It is both an honor and a privilege to share our team’s work with you, and I personally am very grateful for your continued interest … Read more