BLMN

6%+ Dividend Yielder Cracker Barrel Needs to Raise Menu Prices More Aggressively

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) is a high-yielding restaurant idea with a unique concept that has fallen on more difficult times of late. Our recent channel checks indicate that Cracker Barrel has a lot of room to raise prices versus peers, but the firm is having a hard time executing on this front as overall traffic trends remain challenged. Right now, Cracker Barrel yields ~6.3%, and if the company can turn things around, it might make for one of the most interesting income ideas on the market. The high end of our fair value estimate range of Cracker Barrel stands north of $100 (its shares are trading at ~$80 each), but investors should remain cautious … Read more

Walmart Warns: “Prices Are Still High and There Is Considerable Pressure on the Consumer”

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  Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA As we wrote in “The Fed ‘Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” in early January, the trade-down trends that we’re seeing in big box retail and with groceries, more generally, are interesting. Inflation started to accelerate with food-at-home prices moving aggressively higher in early 2022, and consumers have been trading down to better value. It probably wasn’t until egg prices soared, however — driven in part by a shortage of egg laying chickens (not just inflationary pressures) – that tipped everyday consumers to budget more cautiously, and the largest big box retailer in Walmart (WMT) is seeing this impact first-hand. Here’s what’s happening on the ground, per Walmart’s CEO Doug McMillon on the … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Comps Accelerate and Margins Expand in Chipotle’s Third Quarter

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Image Source: Mike Mozart The once beaten down fast casual restaurant chain Chipotle is back to delivering solid comparable restaurant sales growth thanks to menu price increases, and restaurant level operating margin expanded significantly as lower marketing and promotional spending was required to appease cautious consumers. By Kris Rosemann Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Chipotle (CMG) reported 8.6% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter of 2018, results released October 25, driven by new store openings and a 4.4% increase in comparable restaurant sales. Average check moved higher from the year-ago period due in part to a 3.8% effective menu price increase but was partially offset by a 1.1% decline in comparable restaurant transactions. This weakness in traffic was … Read more

Restaurant Traffic Down, Chipotle Still a Favorite Idea

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Image Source: Chipotle (page 89 of 160) In late April of this year, we added Chipotle to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Brian Nelson, CFA We like Chipotle (CMG) for three primary reasons: 1) in CEO Brian Niccol, the company has a new bold visionary at the helm and he is hiring top talent to fill gaps, 2) buyouts in the restaurant space will only offer support for shares as the fast-casual segment remains a key focus area for private equity (here and here), and 3) Chipotle has been plagued with so many health issues (“foodborne illnesses”) in the past that, even with the recent bounce in shares, the market’s expectations are still rather low. Though our fair value … Read more

Prepared Remarks From Nelson Exclusive Conference Call June 30

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Read President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s prepared remarks for the yearly roundup conference call, held for Nelson Exclusive members. If you would like to subscribe to the Nelson Exclusive publication, please learn more about the publication here. The Nelson Exclusive publication does not reflect real performance. Performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you very much for joining us on the first conference call for members of the Nelson Exclusive publication. The first year of the publication has surely been an exciting one for all involved. When I first wrote the introductory letter of the Nelson Exclusive on July 1, 2016, we were well-aware the market had laid down the gauntlet for this publication. … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 28

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 28. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          AerCap (AER): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Affinity Bancshares (AFBI): now $1.50 per share special dividend. Allstate (ALL): now $1.00 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.92. American Financial (AFG): now $2.00 per share special dividend, was $0.80. AMERISAFE (AMSF): now $0.39 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD): now EUR 1.00 per share annual dividend, was EUR 0.82. Aura … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more