SBSI

The Mortgage Refinancing Boom Could Be Ending

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Early Wednesday morning, the Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA) announced that refinancing activity declined 20% from one week earlier. Adjusted for the Labor Day weekend, total mortgage applications dropped 13.5% from the previous week. Consistent with the dramatic upward movement in interest rates, refinancing activity is down 71% since it peaked during the week of May 3, 2013. Why Do We Monitoring Refinancing Activity? When homeowners refinance, a couple outcomes can occur that pump more dollars into the economy. First, with a refinanced mortgage, owners may choose to take equity out of the home, allowing for large purchases like vehicles or even home remodeling. CoreLogic recently reported that 2.5 million more residential properties have returned to positive equity in the second quarter … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 4

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 4. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Air Products and Chemicals (APD): now $1.62 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.50. Allegion (ALLE): now $0.41 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.36. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.65 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.63. Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM): now $1.03 per share variable quarterly dividend, was $1.00. AudioCodes (AUDC): now $0.18 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.17. Bank of Botetourt (BORT): now $0.185 per share quarterly … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Firms: 4 Very Good Reasons

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Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property? Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character. Untermyer: Before money or property? Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913 Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible Though the history of banking dates back to as early as 2000 BC in Babylonia, the makings of the present-day banking system in the US really didn’t take hold until the beginning of the 20th century. Some financial historians may argue for a later date, but we … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 3

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 3. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                AFLAC (AFL): now $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.40. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.6775 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.6500. American Financial (AFG): now $4.00 per share special dividend, was $0.63. Avista (AVA): now $0.46 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.44. Bank of Botetourt (BORT): now $0.1925 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1850. BCE (BCE): now CAD 0.9675 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.9200. … Read more

4 Very Good Reasons Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Stocks

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Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character.Untermyer: Before money or property?Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913   Image: Bank Run in Michigan, USA, February 1933. Source: Public Domain. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s sometimes easy to lose sight of the fragility of a banking firm’s business model. Let’s examine the reasons why we don’t like banking firms’ dividends. Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible. Reason #2: Others Have Tried to Invest in Bank Dividends and Have Failed. Reason #3: … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 10

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 10. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week A&W Revenue Royalties Income Fund (AWRRF): now CAD 0.154 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.147. Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN): now $0.141 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1282. ALPS Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR): now $0.28753 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25892. Atlantica Yield (AY): now $0.39 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.27. … Read more