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The Mortgage Refinancing Boom Could Be Ending

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Early Wednesday morning, the Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA) announced that refinancing activity declined 20% from one week earlier. Adjusted for the Labor Day weekend, total mortgage applications dropped 13.5% from the previous week. Consistent with the dramatic upward movement in interest rates, refinancing activity is down 71% since it peaked during the week of May 3, 2013. Why Do We Monitoring Refinancing Activity? When homeowners refinance, a couple outcomes can occur that pump more dollars into the economy. First, with a refinanced mortgage, owners may choose to take equity out of the home, allowing for large purchases like vehicles or even home remodeling. CoreLogic recently reported that 2.5 million more residential properties have returned to positive equity in the second quarter … Read more

Could a Merger Be What Saks Needs?

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Retailer Saks (click ticker for report: ) has been stealing headlines over the past week, but it has little to do with the company’s performance. In fact, its first quarter results weren’t great—though bottom line results were in-line with estimates and top line consensus expectations were exceeded. On Tuesday morning, the company posted 5% year-over-year revenue growth on a 5.9% same-store sales growth for total sales of $793 million. Adjusted earnings per share were flat year-over-year at $0.19. Even though sales growth is great to see, the company continues to recycle the excuse that 2013 will be a “transformational” year. In reality, gross margins were flat year-over-year at 44.4%, and pre-tax operating margins actually declined 120 basis points year-over-year to … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending July 19

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 19. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week American Express (AXP): now $0.43 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.39. American National Bankshares (AMNB): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. American River Bankshares (AMRB): now $0.07 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Atlantic Union Bank (AUB): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Blackstone (BX): now $0.48 per share quarterly … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

8 Announcements and Top Research You May Have Missed

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8 Announcements. This article was sent to members via email March 27. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Brian here. Trust you are doing great! Here are eight announcements I want you to be aware of: Everything we do is for our members. We’re very proud of the outperformance of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, that we’ve never had a dividend cut in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, that our high-yield ideas are holding up very well, and the success rates of the Exclusive capital-appreciation ideas and short-idea considerations are running at approximately 80%. We’re proud to be your research partner. The odds of a Fed rate cut are going up as yield-curve inversion continues to threaten. The risks are more behavioral in … Read more

Valuentum’s Economic Roundtable: Trade War, Factors and Beyond

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Tickerized for holdings in the DIA. The markets rallied hard September 5 on relief that the US and China (FXI, MCHI) will go back to the negotiations table next month. This back-and-forth news cycle is enough to give any investor whiplash. Let’s catch up with the Valuentum Team on the latest developments, not only with the trade war but also with respect to factor investing, possible bubbles and beyond. Let’s kick things off with the following prompt from ForeignPolicy.com, released August 2: Trump Hired Robert Lighthizer to Win a Trade War. He Lost. Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative, agreed to serve in President Donald Trump’s cabinet in order to test his theory: that if the United States freed itself … Read more