US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more

Raising Our Fair Value Estimate on Berkshire Hathaway, Our Thoughts on the Insurance Industry

Image Source: AIG Competitive Structure of the Insurance Industry Constituents in the insurance industry earn revenues primarily from insurance premiums, policy fees from life insurance/investment products, and income from investments. Operating expenses consist of policyholder benefits and claims incurred, interest credited to policyholders, commissions and other costs of servicing products, as well as general business expenses. An insurer’s profitability is dependent on its ability to price and manage risk on insurance and annuity products, to manage its portfolio of investments effectively, and to control costs through expense discipline. The insurance industry is highly competitive, with rivals numbering in the thousands–including stock companies, specialty insurance organizations, life insurers, mutual companies, other underwriting firms, and banks. Though risk-acceptance criteria, product pricing, and … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 10

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 10. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          3M (MMM): now $1.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.49. Allegion (ALLE): now $0.45 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.41. Ameren (AEE): now $0.63 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.59. American Homes 4 Rent (AMH): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. Ametek (AME): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Ares Management (ARES): now $0.77 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.61. … Read more

4 Very Good Reasons Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Stocks

Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character.Untermyer: Before money or property?Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913   Image: Bank Run in Michigan, USA, February 1933. Source: Public Domain. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s sometimes easy to lose sight of the fragility of a banking firm’s business model. Let’s examine the reasons why we don’t like banking firms’ dividends. Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible. Reason #2: Others Have Tried to Invest in Bank Dividends and Have Failed. Reason #3: … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Firms: 4 Very Good Reasons

Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property? Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character. Untermyer: Before money or property? Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913 Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible Though the history of banking dates back to as early as 2000 BC in Babylonia, the makings of the present-day banking system in the US really didn’t take hold until the beginning of the 20th century. Some financial historians may argue for a later date, but we … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 9

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 9. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          3M (MMM): now $1.51 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.50. Allegion (ALLE): now $0.48 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.45. AllianceBernstein (AB): now $0.77 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.65. Amdocs (DOX): now $0.479 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.435. Ameren (AEE): now $0.67 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.63. American Assets Trust (AAT): now $0.335 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.330. American Financial … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 9

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 9. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Allegion (ALLE): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.16. Allergan (AGN): now $0.72 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.70. Allstate (ALL): now $0.46 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. ALPS Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP): now $0.2066 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2052. Anadarko Petroleum (APC): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM): now $0.335 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.32. … Read more