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Our Thoughts on Berkshire Hathaway’s Latest Annual Report

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Image Shown: Shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B stock have been on an upward climb since June 2020 with room for additional capital appreciation upside. The top end of our fair value estimate range for BRK.B sits at $275 per share. By Callum Turcan We include Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A) (BRK.B) Class B shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and continue to be enormous fans of Warren Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway reported fourth quarter 2020 earnings on February 27 which saw the firm’s ‘operating earnings’ (a non-GAAP metric that better reflects Berkshire’s underlying financial performance) surge higher by 14% year-over-year aided by strength at its ‘railroad, utilities and energy’ and ‘other businesses’ operating segments. However, Berkshire’s operating earnings for … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

8 Announcements and Top Research You May Have Missed

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8 Announcements. This article was sent to members via email March 27. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Brian here. Trust you are doing great! Here are eight announcements I want you to be aware of: Everything we do is for our members. We’re very proud of the outperformance of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, that we’ve never had a dividend cut in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, that our high-yield ideas are holding up very well, and the success rates of the Exclusive capital-appreciation ideas and short-idea considerations are running at approximately 80%. We’re proud to be your research partner. The odds of a Fed rate cut are going up as yield-curve inversion continues to threaten. The risks are more behavioral in … Read more

The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more

Valuentum’s Joint Outlook for the Railroad and Coal Industries

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Key Takeaways: North American railroads operate as an oligopoly, benefit from substantial barriers to entry, and boast significant pricing power. Free cash flow generation trends are strong at the largest operators–Union Pacific (UNP) and Canadian National (CNI)–but industry-wide free cash flow margins (free cash flow divided by revenue) average in the mid-single-digits as elevated maintenance capital costs weigh on conversion rates. Canadian National and Union Pacific are currently the most efficient operators (as measured by their respective operating ratios), while Genessee & Wyoming (GWR) and Canadian Pacific (CP) trail the pack. Coal is the single most important commodity to the railroads, accounting for more than 20% of class I railroad freight revenue. Though US coal volumes should advance over the … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week July 30

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 30. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.16. American States Water (AWR): now $0.365 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.335. Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.34. Arc Resources (AETUF): now CAD 0.066 per share annual dividend, was CAD 0.060. Ares Capital (ARCC): now $0.41 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.40. Apartment Income REIT (AIRC): now $0.44 … Read more

Top Research and Ideas You May Have Missed

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Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don’t believe Warren Buffett’s “style” is out of favor? By Brian Nelson, CFA I need to make sure that you’re aware of something very important. The media and perhaps many investment professionals define the concept of “value” as companies with low price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and the concept of “growth” as companies with high price-to-book ratios. This definition of “value” and “growth” and their corresponding returns have been magnified in writings throughout the media and across quantitative research, even in prestigious journals. Warren Buffett has been rallying against most quantitative applications and how “growth” and “value” are defined in popular media and quantitative research for decades.  Here’s one of the Oracle’s most … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending January 27

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 27. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AGCO (AGCO): now $0.14 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.13. Air Products and Chemicals (APD): now $0.95 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.86. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.535 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.52. Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT): now $0.29 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG): now $0.39 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.38. Bank First National (BFNC): now $0.16 per share quarterly … Read more