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Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

How Some Members Use Valuentum’s Investment Services

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Thank you for your membership to Valuentum. We serve a wide variety of investors, including dividend growth investors, value investors, and pure Valuentum investors, among others. Many different types of investors and professionals use our research and financial analysis in a whole host of applications from individual stock-selection to the evaluation of closed-end funds to an overlay in a money-management setting and beyond. We wanted to make sure that you know that, if you’re a dividend growth or income investor, that there are others that use our website to utilize the Valuentum process, fair value estimates and other metrics. Similarly, if you’re a practitioner of the Valuentum system, I wanted to make sure that you are … Read more

Caterpillar’s Pricing Power Remains Phenomenal

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Image: Price realization remains a key driver behind Caterpillar’s strong performance. On October 31, Caterpillar (CAT) reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, with revenue advancing 12% and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share handily beating the consensus forecast. Caterpillar continues to benefit from significant pricing power, but the firm is also experiencing volume increases. The firm’s adjusted operating profit margin expanded to 20.8% in the third quarter compared to 16.5% for the third quarter of 2022. Caterpillar ended the third quarter with $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, short-term borrowings of ~$4.2 billion, and long-term debt of ~$1 billion and ~$7.6 billion in its ‘Machinery, Energy & Transportation’ and ‘Financial Products’ divisions, respectively. Its balance sheet, while not showcasing a net cash … Read more

Raising Our Fair Value Estimate of Dividend Aristocrat Caterpillar

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Image: Caterpillar’s financial momentum is impressive. Image Source: Caterpillar By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ve raised our fair value estimate of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) to $238 per share from $192 previously. As witnessed in Deere & Company’s (DE) fiscal fourth-quarter results, too, Caterpillar is driving considerable pricing expansion across its portfolio, and the impact on its financials has been quite impressive. Though not an idea in any newsletter portfolio, Caterpillar’s shares yield ~2% at the time of this writing, slightly better than the average S&P 500 company. The company is proud to be a Dividend Aristocrat. When Caterpillar reported third-quarter 2022 results back in October, the company recorded a 21% increase in revenue while adjusted profit per share leapt to $3.95 … Read more

Something New!

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Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you’ll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you’ll see this table in our work going forward. We just wanted to let you know. We appreciate your membership very much!   ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.                          — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 At Valuentum, we take Buffett’s thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of … Read more

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!

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In no particular order — the five winners… As a Chief Investment Strategist that oversees a significant amount of assets, it is vital to have unbiased research that we can lean on for decision making. Brian and the Valuentum team help provide a disciplined and fundamental approach to stock analysis without the typical Wall Street bias or conflicts of interest. The value we get on a monthly basis for having this detailed thought analysis and wise long-term thinking greatly outweighs the cost. We are very happy to have them on our short list of management we trust.  – Stephen H. (October 2022) —– I’d like you to know what my takeaways are from your research: 1) Be wary of capital … Read more

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!

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Hi everyone: — We’re excited to say that we’re adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. — Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. — With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com. — You’ll notice that we’ve also tightened our focus at Valuentum during the past 12-24 months in advance of what has certainly become a more difficult 2022 than even some … Read more

South32 Continues to Improve Its Asset Base

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Image Source: South32 – October 2021 Sierra Gorda Acquisition IR Presentation By Callum Turcan South32 (SOUHY) represents one of our favorite ideas in the mining space, and we include shares of SOUHY as an idea in the new ESG Newsletter portfolio (more on that here). We view both South32’s capital appreciation and income generation upside quite favorably, keeping in mind the firm has a variable dividend policy that is subject to foreign currency movements. On a scale of 1-100 (with 100 being the best), South32 earns a nice ESG rating of 93 (based on our proprietary ESG rating matrix) as the miner continues to pivot towards commodities that will be essential to making the green energy revolution possible. Before we … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline

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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline — — In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He’ll talk about which companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he’s avoiding. This and more in Valuentum’s 2020 Exclusive conference call.   Note: This video was originally published August 2, 2020.    To watch the video >>   The Theory of Universal Valuation —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more