Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor
Let’s examine a number of reasons why we don’t prefer banking entities and take a look at recent performance from industry constituents. A challenging rate environment and declining mortgage originations offer key headwinds.
Early Wednesday morning, the Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA) announced that refinancing activity declined 20% from one week earlier. Adjusted for the Labor Day weekend, total mortgage applications dropped 13.5% from the previous week. Consistent with the dramatic upward movement in interest rates, refinancing activity is down 71% since it peaked during the week of May 3, 2013. Why Do We Monitoring Refinancing Activity? When homeowners refinance, a couple outcomes can occur that pump more dollars into the economy. First, with a refinanced mortgage, owners may choose to take equity out of the home, allowing for large purchases like vehicles or even home remodeling. CoreLogic recently reported that 2.5 million more residential properties have returned to positive equity in the second quarter … Read more
A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more
Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property? Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character. Untermyer: Before money or property? Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913 Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible Though the history of banking dates back to as early as 2000 BC in Babylonia, the makings of the present-day banking system in the US really didn’t take hold until the beginning of the 20th century. Some financial historians may argue for a later date, but we … Read more
Image Source: GotCredit Three of our favorite banks are JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and US Bancorp. These are three very high-quality institutions which are also very well managed. They all benefit from cultures that encourage the right kind of risk/reward thinking. If these equities start to trade at a meaningful discount to our fair value estimates, they may be are worth considering as long-term investments, in our view. Summary We’ll talk about how banks make money, and the three most important costs of running a bank. The Great Financial Crisis revealed the tremendous risks of banking equities, and we’ll walk through these in depth. We’ll discuss how to conceptualize where we are in the banking cycle, and how that … Read more
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending November 6. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Aaron’s (AAN): now $0.045 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.040. Amcor (AMCR): now $0.1175 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1150. AmerisourceBergen (ABC): now $0.44 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Apartment Investment (AIV): now $8.20 per share special dividend, was $0.41. Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR): now $0.04 per share dividend, was $0.034. Barrick Gold (GOLD): now $0.09 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.08. BG Staffing … Read more
President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 14. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AirBoss of America (ABSSF): now CAD 0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.07. Alerus Financial (ALRS): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. CapStar Financial (CSTR): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Chesapeake Energy (CHK): now $0.34375 per share quarterly dividend. Companhia Siderurgica (SID): now $2.00 per share annual dividend, was $0.002. Curtiss-Wright (CW): now $0.18 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.17. … Read more
Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending November 18. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Agilent Technologies (A): now $0.132 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.115. American Equity (AEL): now $0.24 per share annual dividend, was $0.22. Assurant (AIZ): now $0.53 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.50. Bancroft Fund (BCV): now $0.52 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Brown-Forman (BF.A): now $0.1825 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.17. Brunswick (BC): now $0.165 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. C&F Financial (CFFI): … Read more
Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character.Untermyer: Before money or property?Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913 Image: Bank Run in Michigan, USA, February 1933. Source: Public Domain. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s sometimes easy to lose sight of the fragility of a banking firm’s business model. Let’s examine the reasons why we don’t like banking firms’ dividends. Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible. Reason #2: Others Have Tried to Invest in Bank Dividends and Have Failed. Reason #3: … Read more