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The Facebook (Meta Platforms) Thesis Just Got Even More Complicated

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Image: Facebook’s free cash flow generation remains robust. Image Source: Meta Earnings Presentation Q4 2021 By Brian Nelson, CFA We like simple ideas — underpriced investment ideas with moaty characteristics, net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential that are tied to secular growth trends over the long haul. The company formerly known as Facebook, now Meta Platforms (FB), has had all these things going for it, but it is no longer a simple idea. That doesn’t mean we’re abandoning ship, however. No story is perfect. Nevertheless, we’re putting Meta Platform’s fair value estimate under review following its fourth-quarter 2021 results, released February 2, and while we expect shares to still come out underpriced following our model … Read more

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater

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Image: Erica Nicol Takeaways: Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor … Read more

Some Questions Answered: The Fair Value Estimate Range and ROIC

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Q: In the 16-page stock reports, why doesn’t the ‘percentage undervalued / overvalued’ match up to the actual discount/premium to Valuentum’s fair value estimate of the company? A: We view the intrinsic value of a company as a Fair Value Range, not necessarily a single point estimate, so the undervalued and overvalued calculations match up to either the low fair value estimate or high fair value estimate, respectively. Within the context of a margin of safety, we wouldn’t necessarily view a company to be worth precisely $55 per share, for example; instead we’d view the company as worth between $50 (low end fair value estimate) and $60 per share (high end fair value estimate), with the low and high fair … Read more

Meta Platforms (Facebook), One of the Most Underpriced Stocks on the Market

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Image Shown: Meta Platforms Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan In late October 2021, the company now known as Meta Platforms Inc (FB) announced its name change from Facebook to highlight its focus on the “metaverse,” a digital universe that Meta Platforms is investing heavily in. The metaverse is supposed to be a digital world where video gaming, social media, community and family gatherings, TV and movie watching, card game and board game playing, major entertainment events and related venues, and various other activities come together in an immersive experience that ultimately could generate a lot of revenue for Meta Platforms. In 2014, then-Facebook announced it was acquiring Oculus VR, a maker of virtual … Read more

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds

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Image Source: Terry Johnson By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ll have our traditional Valuentum Weekly email coming out on Sunday, and I’m excited to say our team is putting the finishing touches on our technology industry update, so we’ll have a whole bunch of fresh reports for you to look at Sunday evening/Monday morning. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April … Read more

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run

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“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached … Read more

Alphabet Launches Higher

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Image: Our fair value estimate of Alphabet has continued to lead the stock higher, and shares continued to deliver following the company’s third-quarter report, released October 28. By Brian Nelson, CFA Our long-term thesis and the top weighting of Google parent company, Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is unchanged following the company’s fantastic third-quarter report, released October 28. During the period, revenue advanced 41% on a year-over-year basis as the company’s operating margin swelled ~8 percentage points to drive diluted earnings per share to $27.99, beating consensus by nice margin. We’re reiterating our $3,500 fair value estimate for shares. Here is what Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google had to say in the press release: … Read more

Facebook’s Third-Quarter 2021 Results Better Than Feared

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Image: Facebook continues to put up impressive levels of free cash flow generation. We remain huge fans of the stock. Image Source: Facebook By Brian Nelson, CFA Expectations were low for Facebook’s (FB) third-quarter 2021 results, released October 25, following a read-through from news in recent weeks, including Snapchat’s (SNAP) weak third-quarter performance due to Apple’s (AAPL) iOS 14 changes and supply chain issues that may be slowing ad growth. Though Facebook’s third-quarter results still felt an impact from Apple’s iOS 14 changes and perhaps advertisers slowing some spending due to reduced product availability, the social media giant revealed that it remains a net-cash-rich, free cash flow generating powerhouse that continues to benefit from secular ad growth trends, and one … Read more

Markets Look Vulnerable, Adding “Protection”

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Image: The S&P 500 (SPY) and corresponding 50-day (green), 100-day (purple), and 200-day moving averages (red). We expect the SPY may have to “correct” to the 200-day moving average, or about $412-$413 per share before it finds its footing. Self-inflicted wounds the past several weeks have altered the market’s sentiment for the worse, and we don’t think the selling is done yet. To read the email, please click here. — Hi everyone: — Volatility has picked up, and options trading is all the rage. — The markets are under pressure again this morning, and we’re not wasting any time to add put option “protection” to both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. The last time we added … Read more

Facebook’s Stock Sell Off Explained

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Image: Facebook’s free cash flow generation has been resilient in the face of prior iOS updates, and we think it will continue to grow rapidly in the future. Source: Facebook. By Brian Nelson, CFA We never like to see a 10-rated stock sell off, even if it’s up more than 30% so far this year and up over 140% since it registered a 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index in January 2019, but that’s what we’ve been closely following with Facebook (FB). The stock experienced similar selling pressure during the summer of 2018, and while we’re huge fans of this underpriced tech giant in the long run, we think shares may face more selling pressure in the near term. Nonetheless, … Read more