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The Valuentum Buying Index as a Differentiating Factor

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“No other research provider has approached mapping the market in this manner, making Valuentum’s research a differentiating factor behind your practice and a must-have for any investor.” — Brian Nelson, CFA  By Brian Nelson, CFA We have a huge day of earnings coming out today, and we’re excited about the upcoming releases at Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) after the close. Facebook (FB) is scheduled to report after the market close tomorrow, July 28. The important consideration, however, is how these reports impact our long-term forecasts, and we won’t be reading much into their share-price reaction to the reports, whether good or bad. Valuentum stock reports for Apple here (pdf), Facebook here (pdf), Alphabet here (pdf), PayPal … Read more

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Soars!

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Image shown: The top weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio continued to lead the charge during the trading session Friday, July 23. Facebook and Alphabet rallied on favorable reports from social media peers, while Vertex continues to recover thanks in part to encouraging views on CRISPR technology, while Visa looks to be back on track. DPZ had a strong trading session July 22 and experienced some profit taking. Image source: Seeking Alpha.  By Brian Nelson, CFA Add options commentary to your membership >> During the trading session July 23, shares of top-weighted Facebook (FB) surged 5.3%, to close at $369.79. In December 2018, Facebook’s shares were trading hands in the mid-$120s, and the past few years have been … Read more

Best Idea Facebook Soars!

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Image Shown: Facebook’s shares soared during the trading session June 28 as the company received a favorable ruling regarding a couple complaints that tried to make the case it is operating as a monopoly. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 28, a federal judge ruled that a couple antitrust cases lacked legal merit in their attempt to peg Facebook (FB) as a monopoly. We view the development positively, and while there is a possibility that amended arguments could be filed, Facebook’s shares remain cheap whether it is preserved in current form or whether the market is forced to value it on a sum of the parts basis. Shares of Facebook soared to $355+ on the news, and our fair value … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline

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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline — — In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He’ll talk about which companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he’s avoiding. This and more in Valuentum’s 2020 Exclusive conference call.   Note: This video was originally published August 2, 2020.    To watch the video >>   The Theory of Universal Valuation —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, … Read more

Best Idea Facebook Posts Blowout Earnings Report

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Image Shown: Facebook Inc’s digital advertising business is a behemoth and enabled the firm to put up banner first quarter 2021 performance. We continue to be enormous fans of Facebook and include shares of FB as a top-weighted idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Facebook Inc – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan We continue to view Facebook Inc (FB) as one of the most attractive capital appreciation opportunities out there as shares of FB, as of this writing, are trading at a steep discount to their intrinsic value on the basis of enterprise cash flow analysis. Our fair value estimate for Facebook sits at $413 per share with room for upside as … Read more

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios

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January 27, 2021 ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios We are raising the cash position in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. You can read the 2020 recap here. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we’re raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially … Read more

FTC Attacks Facebook, Win-Win Scenario for Investors

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Image Shown: Facebook Inc has a large digital advertising business with global reach, but it does not have a monopoly on digital advertising or social media by any means. Image Source: Facebook Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation Summary Facebook is being sued by the FTC for allegedly engaging in monopolistic activities via its acquisition program. It’s important to note that the government is not seizing Facebook’s assets and that Facebook investors own the future free cash flow stream of the entire entity under any and every scenario–whether Facebook is retained in current form or whether it is broken into different parts through a potential IPO/spin-off of its Instagram and WhatsApp properties.  Under a status quo scenario, … Read more

Earnings Brief: Facebook and Alphabet

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Image: Facebook (orange) and Alphabet (blue) have advanced 26% and 20%, respectively, thus far in 2020 versus roughly flat performance of the S&P 500. We continue to like both names as the highest-weighted constituents in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re not making any changes to our fair value estimates of Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOG) following their respective third-quarter reports, released October 29. Both Facebook and Alphabet are the highest-weighted positions in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and they have been for some time now. Collectively 26% of the newsletter portfolio at the high end of their respective weighting ranges, shares of Facebook and Alphabet have advanced more than 20% this year, while the S&P … Read more

News Brief: We Like Large Cap Growth, Big Cap Tech, and the NASDAQ

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Image: Since 2010, a large cap growth ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 150 percentage points (15,000 basis points). Since 2010, a large cap growth ETF has outperformed a small cap value ETF by over 275 percentage points, or 27,500 basis points (image not shown). We expect continued outperformance from companies within the large cap growth bucket. By Brian Nelson, CFA The markets have been see-sawing the past couple weeks as the global economy continues to recover and much of the world awaits the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential election. We think the equity markets have largely factored in the forecasted epidemiology curve with respect to COVID-19, including infection spikes across the world, so recent market volatility … Read more

The Resilience of the US Digital Advertising Market and Alphabet

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Image Shown: Shares of Alphabet Inc Class C shares, a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, have performed very well over the past year. Going forward, we see room for significant capital appreciation upside as the digital advertising market has proven to be very resilient of late. By Callum Turcan To ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, we continue to prefer large-cap tech companies with pristine balance sheets, strong cash flow profiles, and promising long-term growth outlooks. Ideally, we are searching for companies with outlooks that are supported by secular growth tailwinds, allowing for several winners in their respective end markets. Digital advertising is a prime example of a resilient high-quality market that is supported by secular … Read more