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Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Housing Is Back! Trends in Home Improvement

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Housing prices are no longer in the dumps. What does this mean for the home improvement retailers, and how might other trends be helping to provide a positive industrywide backdrop? Both Home Depot and Lowes may be long-term winners, but valuation considerations shouldn’t be ignored. The Valuentum analyst team digs in. ~8 mins. If you cannot view the podcast below, please select the link here or view the transcript that follows. Chris Araos: Hello, this is Chris Araos at Valuentum Securities. With me are Kris Roseman and Brian Nelson. Today, we are going to focus on Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW) and why they are doing so well. We have a strong housing market. New home sales have hit … Read more

Is the Time Right to Invest in Home Improvement?

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The US housing market has been hot this summer. Both purchases of previously-owned homes and residential housing starts reached their highest monthly levels in the month of July since 2007. The improved demand has been driven by a resilient labor market, historically-low mortgage rates and “pent-up” demand from the Great Recession. Purchases of previously-owned homes advanced 2% sequentially in July to an annualized rate of 5.59 million houses, handily beating consensus estimates of 5.43 million. The increased levels of demand come despite limited support from first-time buyers, however. Millennials, now coming of age, are making their first “rent-versus-buy” decisions, and many, having witnessed the housing bubble burst late last decade, aren’t viewing ownership as the wise investment decision that their … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Household Durables Firms, Electronics Retailers Face Pressure

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On Monday, the maker of the Sleep Number bed, Select Comfort (SCSS) sent shudders through the furniture and bedding manufacturing industry when it warned that not only would fourth-quarter sales miss the mark but that the challenging times would continue into 2014: Select Comfort Corp…reported that preliminary fourth-quarter 2013 total net sales grew 5% year-over-year to $231 million, with flat company-controlled comparable sales growth. The mid-point of the company’s fourth-quarter EPS guidance range of $0.18 to $0.26 assumed low-double-digit growth in total net sales and mid-single-digit growth in company-controlled comparable sales. Through November, company performance was trending consistent with the EPS guidance range, with solid sales results and expense controls. From Cyber Monday through the end of December, however, sales … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week February 25

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 25. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Aaron’s (AAN): now $0.1125 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1000.           Agnico Eagle (AEM): now $0.40 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.35. Albemarle (ALB): now $0.395 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.390. Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX): now $0.19 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN): now $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. AMERISAFE (AMSF): now $0.31 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.29. Apple … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of February 10

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 10. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          3M (MMM): now $1.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.49. Allegion (ALLE): now $0.45 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.41. Ameren (AEE): now $0.63 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.59. American Homes 4 Rent (AMH): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. Ametek (AME): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Ares Management (ARES): now $0.77 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.61. … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more