SKX

Foot Locker Talks of a More Promotional Environment, Softening Consumer Spending

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Image Source: Foot Locker By Brian Nelson, CFA Foot Locker (FL) reported lower-than-expected third quarter results on December 4, with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in below the consensus forecasts. The company also lowered its 2024 sales and non-GAAP earnings per share outlook. Total revenue fell 1.4% year-over-year (down 2.2% on a constant currency basis) in the quarter, with comparable store sales up 2.4%. Foot Locker and Kids Food Locker experienced comparable store sales growth of 2.8%, while Champs Sports and WSS experienced comparable store sales growth of 2.8% and 1.8%, respectively. Foot Locker experienced gross margin expansion of 230 basis points year-over-year in the quarter, but the company’s non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.33 was lower than expectations. … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

Nike’s Revenue Under Pressure

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Image: Nike’s shares have languished of late, and a comeback will take some time. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 27, Nike (NKE) reported disappointing fourth quarter fiscal 2024 results and issued an outlook for fiscal 2025 that came up short relative to expectations. Revenue in the quarter fell 2%, missing the consensus estimate, but was flat on a currency-neutral basis. Revenue for its Nike brand advanced 1% on a currency-neutral basis, while Nike direct revenue fell 7% on a currency-neutral basis. Wholesale revenue was up 8% on a currency-neutral basis, while revenues for Converse dropped 17% on a currency-neutral basis. Nike’s guidance for 2025 wasn’t very encouraging. Here’s what the executive team said on the conference call: Now let … Read more

Nike’s Revenue to Face Pressure During First Half of Fiscal 2025

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Image: Nike’s shares have faced considerable pressure from the beginning of 2022, and its outlook for the first half of fiscal 2025 wasn’t great. By Brian Nelson, CFA On March 21, Nike (NKE) reported better-than-expected third quarter fiscal 2024 results. Revenue during the quarter advanced modestly on a reported and currency-neutral basis as revenue from its Nike brand rose 2%, while sales for Converse fell 19% on a reported basis. Nike showcased its pricing strength in the period, with the company’s gross margin advancing 150 basis points, to 44.8%, despite higher input expenses and restructuring charges. Net income fell 5% in the fiscal third quarter, while diluted earnings per share dropped 3% in the period. Nike ended the quarter ending … Read more

There Will Be Volatility

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Last year, 2022, was a big test for equity investors, and the downside volatility that we witnessed during the year wasn’t comfortable, to say the least. Following the COVID-19 crash and rebound during 2020, and then the market surge in 2021, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say many investors’ heads are probably still spinning from all the volatility witnessed to start this decade. That said, part of what we’ve been warning about the past few years with respect to the equity market, especially in Value Trap, is that the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (e.g. quant, machine/algorithmic trading, etc.) will only lead to more and more market volatility, so while we were somewhat surprised by last … Read more

Nike’s Fourth-Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Miss Not Tragic But Better Opportunities Elsewhere

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Image: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 29, Nike (NKE) reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2023 results for the period ending May 31, 2023. During the quarter, revenue advanced 5% and 8% on a currency-neutral basis, but investors mostly focused on Nike’s bottom line, where diluted earnings per share fell 27%, to $0.66, missing the consensus estimate by a couple pennies. The firm expects material improvement in fiscal 2024, but we’re skeptical of just how much. Nike continues to face increased product input costs as well as elevated freight and logistics expenses while consumers continue to take advantage of marked-down merchandise, pressuring margins. Though higher prices in some categories have helped mitigate Nike’s weak overall earnings performance, the firm’s gross margin … Read more

Walmart Warns: “Prices Are Still High and There Is Considerable Pressure on the Consumer”

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  Image Source: Mike Mozart By Brian Nelson, CFA As we wrote in “The Fed ‘Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop” in early January, the trade-down trends that we’re seeing in big box retail and with groceries, more generally, are interesting. Inflation started to accelerate with food-at-home prices moving aggressively higher in early 2022, and consumers have been trading down to better value. It probably wasn’t until egg prices soared, however — driven in part by a shortage of egg laying chickens (not just inflationary pressures) – that tipped everyday consumers to budget more cautiously, and the largest big box retailer in Walmart (WMT) is seeing this impact first-hand. Here’s what’s happening on the ground, per Walmart’s CEO Doug McMillon on the … Read more

Nike’s Weak Earnings Growth, Markdowns, and Lofty Inventory Levels Still Telling of a Struggling Consumer

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  Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA The health of the consumer continues to be one of the biggest questions heading into 2023. Many consumers are working through the excess savings garnered via COVID-19 stimulus (and many market observers expect this savings to run out by mid-2023) and credit card debt is on the rise. Inflation is taking a bite out of consumer discretionary spending as more and more of consumer financial capacity is being allocated to necessities including food and grocery items. Food at home costs have soared, and many have had to cut back in other areas. Nike’s (NKE) second-quarter fiscal 2023 results, released December 20, showed a very discerning consumer that is looking to drive a … Read more

Apple iPhone Supply Disruptions Not Likely to Hurt Markets with Overall Holiday Sales Reportedly Strong

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Image: Holiday sales are expected to expand ~2.5% in 2022 over very strong growth in 2021 and 2020. Image Source: Adobe By Brian Nelson, CFA Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook seemingly have worked out a plan for Apple to keep advertising on the Twitter platform after what looked to be a temporary pause by the iPhone maker. Though the news is immaterial to our thesis on Apple in any respect, it was good to see the two tech giants work whatever differences they had out. Certainly, a fallout between Musk and Cook would not be a good thing for the tech sector and innovation, more broadly, as the two wield large influences across Silicon … Read more

Target’s Holiday Outlook Sends Mixed Messages; Big Sales Data Week Ahead

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Image Source: Valuentum “Nearly all of the slowdown was driven by our discretionary categories, Apparel, Home and Hardlines, as our guests became increasingly cautious in their spending in those categories at both Target and throughout the industry more broadly. So far in the month of November, trends have been largely consistent with what we were seeing at the end of October, in terms of our comp trends, the mix of sales between frequency and discretionary businesses and the focus on promotions by our guests.” – Target’s 3Q Conference Call By Brian Nelson, CFA After Walmart (WMT) reported its third-quarter earnings November 15, “Walmart Is Back on Track; Markets Looking Healthier,” we thought things were looking a bit better across the … Read more