RHP

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Marriott International Can Survive COVID-19

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Image Shown: Shares of Marriott International Inc have recovered somewhat from their March 2020 lows and are currently trading in the lower bound of our fair value estimate range. By Callum Turcan On August 10, Marriott International Inc (MAR) reported second quarter 2020 earnings that missed both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Marriott International’s financials have been devasted by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, though its saving grace has been its asset-light business model which is built around property management and franchise fees. Most of its revenue comes from managing third-party locations and franchising out its various hotel brands to third-parties including Courtyard, Fairfield by Marriott, Residence Inn, Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, and others. Please note many of its franchised … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 29

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 29. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO): now $0.11 per share annual dividend, was $0.10. Bank of South Carolina (BKSC): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Banner (BANR): now $0.41 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.38. Columbus McKinnon (CMCO): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. ConnectOne Bancorp (CNOB): now $0.09 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.075. Dassault Systemes (DASTY): now EUR 0.65 per share annual … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 30

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 30. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week ACNB (ACNB): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Activision Blizzard (ATVI): now $0.34 per share annual dividend, was $0.30. Amdocs (DOX): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.27. Banner (BANR): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Columbus McKinnon (CMCO): now $0.05 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.04. First … Read more

Prepared Remarks From Nelson Exclusive Conference Call June 30

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Read President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s prepared remarks for the yearly roundup conference call, held for Nelson Exclusive members. If you would like to subscribe to the Nelson Exclusive publication, please learn more about the publication here. The Nelson Exclusive publication does not reflect real performance. Performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you very much for joining us on the first conference call for members of the Nelson Exclusive publication. The first year of the publication has surely been an exciting one for all involved. When I first wrote the introductory letter of the Nelson Exclusive on July 1, 2016, we were well-aware the market had laid down the gauntlet for this publication. … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending March 31

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 31. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Activision Blizzard (ATVI): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. Amdocs (DOX): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.195. Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. Banner (BANR): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. City Holding (CHCO): now $0.44 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.43. CyrusOne (CONE): now $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.38. Elbit … Read more

Podcast: REITs, Interest Rates and Beyond!

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The Valuentum analyst team talks REITs and the reasons why REIT investors should pay close attention to changes in Treasury rates. Various secular themes across the data center, healthcare, office, and mall REITs are discussed, and an explanation for the sector’s systematically poor raw, unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratios is covered. ~8 mins. Tickerized for various ETFs and the holdings in the VNQ. Brian Nelson, CFA: In September, REITs were officially broken out from the financial sector to their own sector of the S&P 500 — some 30 or so stocks with $600 billion in market capitalization, or about 3% of the S&P 500. Could this change have marked a peak in performance for equity and mortgage REIT stocks? Are investors … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more