The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds
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Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes. Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more
Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More
Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more
Fair Value Estimate Changes: Facebook, Twitter, Caterpillar and More…
By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Let’s begin this edition of Recent Material Fair Value Estimate Changes’ with a discussion of some of the highest-profile names that made the list. If you require background reading on why we make changes to our valuation models, please see: What causes fair value estimates to change? Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook (FB) continues to separate itself from other social media companies, and we continue to be impressed by its free cash flow generating prowess and net cash-rich balance sheet. Our most recent fair value estimate increase comes largely as a result of greater optimism regarding the sustainability of the company’s pace of revenue growth, reflected by a hike in our mid-cycle … Read more
Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending September 2
Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending September 2. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Bank of America (BAC): now $0.075 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): now C$0.74 per share quarterly dividend, was C$0.72. Broadcom (AVGO): now $0.51 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.50. Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP): now $0.59 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.57. Campbell Soup (CPB): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.31. Capital Southwest (CSWC): now $0.11 per share quarterly … Read more
Dividend Increases for the Week Ending February 27
Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 27. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Albemarle (ALB): now $0.29 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.275. Canadian Imperial Bank (CM): now C$1.06 per share quarterly dividend, was C$1.03. Chico’s FAS (CHS): now $0.0775 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.075. Chubb (CB): now $0.57 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.50. Cohen & Steers (CNS): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Comcast (CMCSA): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.225. Cubic Corp (CUB): … Read more
Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update
Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more
Packaging Corporation of America Bets Big on Boise
Monday morning, Packaging Corporation of America (click ticker for report: ) announced that it will pay $12.55 per share in cash to acquire paper company Boise (BZ) for a total deal value of $1.995 billion. The deal increases PCA’s containerboard presence by 42% to 3.7 million tons, while also giving PCA a presence in the Pacific Northwest—an area previously underrepresented. Source: BZ 2012 10-K Though Boise has struggled with large amounts of excess capacity in its newsprint segment, we’ve seen the firm move capacity closer to production over the past two years, leading to stabilized profitability. Nevertheless, the small, Idaho-based player was unable to truly compete with national competitors. Further, Boise had a large net-debt position, leaving the company fairly … Read more
8 Announcements and Top Research You May Have Missed
8 Announcements. This article was sent to members via email March 27. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Brian here. Trust you are doing great! Here are eight announcements I want you to be aware of: Everything we do is for our members. We’re very proud of the outperformance of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, that we’ve never had a dividend cut in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, that our high-yield ideas are holding up very well, and the success rates of the Exclusive capital-appreciation ideas and short-idea considerations are running at approximately 80%. We’re proud to be your research partner. The odds of a Fed rate cut are going up as yield-curve inversion continues to threaten. The risks are more behavioral in … Read more
2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?
Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more