MSTR

How Some Members Use Valuentum’s Investment Services

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Thank you for your membership to Valuentum. We serve a wide variety of investors, including dividend growth investors, value investors, and pure Valuentum investors, among others. Many different types of investors and professionals use our research and financial analysis in a whole host of applications from individual stock-selection to the evaluation of closed-end funds to an overlay in a money-management setting and beyond. We wanted to make sure that you know that, if you’re a dividend growth or income investor, that there are others that use our website to utilize the Valuentum process, fair value estimates and other metrics. Similarly, if you’re a practitioner of the Valuentum system, I wanted to make sure that you are … Read more

Markets Bounce Off Technical Support But Not Out of the Woods

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Image: The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPY) bounced off technical support last week, both the 200-day moving average as well as the breakout of the downtrend line, but while this may push off any leg down in the near term, we won’t hesitate to “raise cash” on a few newsletter portfolio names if a breakthrough of support to the downside happens. Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA The 200-day moving average remains a key technical level for the market-cap weighted S&P 500. The risks that the market may break through both the 200-day moving average and the breakout of the technical downtrend line remain elevated, but the past week showed a successful test of technical support levels, in our … Read more

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print

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Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also … Read more

ICYMI: Things Have Changed Fast; Inflation and the Fed Have Damaged the Economy

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This article was originally published October 5.   Image Source: EpicTop10.com By Brian Nelson, CFA The year 2022 started out with the popping of the bubble in the alternative investments arena–namely in the cryptocurrency (BITO), non-fungible token (NFT), and the collectibles markets–coupled with worries about the Fed raising interest rates to combat inflation and weakness in the most speculative equity areas, namely disruptive innovation stocks (ARKK). It’s important to note that the consumer price index (CPI) started to edge meaningfully higher in early 2021 (not this year). Though the writing was on the wall with respect to impending Fed tightening, as investors, we have to assess what the Fed will do and the impact on the markets, not necessarily what … Read more

Valuentum Weekly: Outsized Energy Exposure Continues to Buoy Newsletter Portfolios

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Image: Light crude oil futures once traded for roughly -$40 (negative $40) during the COVID-19 crisis, but have now rocketed to more than $120 in recent trading. Image Source: TradingView. This note was emailed to members Sunday, March 6, 2022. Markets   The S&P 500, as measured by the SPY, is down 9% year-to-date, a modest pullback, in our view, particularly in light of the fantastic performance the past few years. Though not necessarily welcome, a down year every now and then for the broader market indexes and a modest bear market can only be expected, at times. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as measured by the DIA, is down more than 7% year-to-date (not too bad), while the Nasdaq–as measured by the … Read more

The Valuentum Weekly Is a Hit! Only Delivered By Email!

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Image: Excerpt from the November 14 edition of the Valuentum Weekly. November 14, 2021: Inflation Is Positive for Nominal Earnings While Interest Rates Remain at All-Time Lows Tickers mentioned: GOOG, FB, PYPL, DIS, JNJ, BRK.A, BRK.B, ASML, BYND, RIVN, TSLA, JD, WB, BABA, GE, TOSBF, Z, ZG, OPEN, RBLX, GLD November 7, 2021: Large Cap Growth Has More Room to Run Tickers mentioned: SCHG, GME, AMC, BBBY, CVX, XOM, XLE, MA, V, PYPL, QCOM, RSG, NEM, TSLA, PTON, Z, ZG, F, IWN, GMET October 31, 2021: Happy Halloween! Tickers mentioned: AAPL, AMZN, QQQ, SPY, INTC, FB, GOOG, MSFT, LMT, MVRS, DLR, XOM, CVX, DIS, SLB, HON, INTC, CMG, PYPL, PINS, TSLA, HTZZ, PTLO, RSG, SBUX, MCD, NEM, SCHG, IWN October 24, … Read more

Hut 8 Mining Is an Interesting Play on Cryptocurrencies

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Image Source: Hut 8 Mining Corporation – November 2021 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Hut 8 Mining Corporation (HUT) is headquartered in Toronto, Canada (in the province of Ontario), and “mines” digital assets from two operations in Alberta, Canada (in the city of Medicine Hat and town of Drumheller). The firm is in the process of developing a third mining operation in Ontario, Canada, at the small city of North Bay, having secured a long-term power purchase agreement with Validus Power Corp. Overview  Though Hut 8 Mining mines for both bitcoin (BITO) and ether, two of the most popular cryptocurrencies, when it mines for Ether it historically has preferred to get paid in bitcoin. Hut 8 Mining has built up … Read more

News Round Up and Some Answers

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Image Shown: Wendy’s is the latest stock to be swept away by the meme-stock craze, providing further evidence that 1) markets are inefficient and 2) prices and returns are based on future expectations that may be realized or not. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hope you all are doing great. We saw a nice breakout of Facebook’s (FB) share price yesterday, June 7, and we continue to be fans of the social media giant. We view our long-term assumptions as quite reasonable and peg a fair value estimate of $413 per share for this innovative behemoth. There is considerable upside potential as Facebook continues to monetize its massive user base and pursues new initiatives including e-commerce (Shops) and dating (Dating) and … Read more

How to Navigate the Low Return Environment

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Image Shown: Investors continue to gamble on meme stocks and cryptocurrencies. Image Source: QuoteInspector.com.  Modern Finance Is Dead, Long Live Value Trap By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we don’t believe in many of the quantitative theories out there. We like to operate within the stock component of market returns, as this has historically been the strongest place to focus one’s efforts. We don’t think it makes sense to add “bad” assets to a portfolio just for the sake of diversification. Can you imagine adding pipeline MLPs to your portfolio in June 2015? If we can find great ideas within the stronger relatively performing stock market, we think we’ll be far better off than any stock/bond mix that one may choose. … Read more

Stock Markets Still Healthy, Big Cap Tech and Large Cap Growth Safe Havens

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Image Shown: The S&P 500 has been trading above our fair value estimate range (shaded blue area) for some time now. A modest sell-off should be expected. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run and point to the areas of big cap tech and large cap growth as sources of fundamental and financial resiliency. By Brian Nelson, CFA The S&P 500 (SPY), chart shown above, is trading above our fair value estimate range. The recent sell-off should not be surprising, and it has been predominant in speculative free-cash-flow burning technology stocks, of which we tend to avoid. In January of this year, we “raised” 10%-20% cash in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter … Read more