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Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of June 28

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending June 28. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          The Adirondack Trust Company (ADKT): now $29.00 per share semi-annual dividend, was $28.75. B3 S.A. – Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (BOLSY): now $0.0249 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0235. Bank of America (BAC): now $0.26 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.24. Bankinter, S.A. (BKNIY): now $0.0967 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0946. The Bank of New York Mellon (BK): now $0.47 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Roaring 20s? — Consumer Staples Valuations Stretched

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Strong outlooks for Kimberly-Clark, United Technologies, Hexcel and Lockheed Martin point to an economy that is still gaining momentum. We caution investors of consumer staples stocks, however, with many equities holding large net debt positions, and the sector trading at almost 20 times forward earnings. Learn about the difference between the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the Exclusive publication and much more in this note. Image Source: Alan Levine — By Brian Nelson, CFA Welcome new members!    As you’re getting familiar with the website, please watch the Navigation Video. For those passionate about financial analysis and to see how deep our team goes with our research, please watch the Financial Analysis Video. Finally, don’t forget to flip through the , and read our … Read more

Tyson, ConAgra, Hershey, and Cal-Maine Lead the Pack

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Stocks Featured: ADM, BG, CALM, CAG, FDP, GIS, HSY, K, KRFT, MKC, MJN, MDLZ, TSN, UN. As we survey recent performance across the Food Products industry (large, small), a number of firms continue to struggle to squeeze out modest growth, while others are putting up rather impressive organic top-line and adjusted earnings expansion. Perhaps the strongest fundamental performer in the group has been meat-processor Tyson Foods (TSN), which recorded impressive bottom-line growth in its fiscal third quarter, released August 5, as operating income in its ‘Chicken’ segment jumped 38% thanks to increased domestic/international production and strong pricing. The company’s fiscal 2014 outlook also speaks to robust chicken production and lower input costs, and we expect the strong top- and bottom-line performance to continue. Tyson Foods has been a 9 on our Valuentum Buying Index for some time and … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good

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Valuentum’s President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds. Transcript: << Valuentum’s Best Ideas On behalf of the Valuentum team, I’d like to present to you our prepared remarks for the Valuentum Exclusive conference call for 2021. It is both an honor and a privilege to share our team’s work with you, and I personally am very grateful for your continued interest … Read more

Don’t Just Look at the House; Examine the Foundation

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Image Source: Lindsay Holmwood Let’s examine how we derive the forecasts in our stock and dividend reports. This article appeared on our website April 2014. It is updated and refreshed today for the benefit of new members. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA One of the biggest benefits of being a member of Valuentum’s investment services is that we show you all of the numbers – the numbers tell the real story. An author/analyst may tell the story of a company through his/her eyes, but the author/analyst must still convert his/her thoughts and qualitative considerations into quantitative future forecasts to arrive at a fair value estimate of a stock. These future forecasts ultimately determine an intrinsic value estimate of the … Read more

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022

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Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. But what about the Valuentum Buying Index ratings, themselves? How did they “perform” during 2022 in one of the worst years for stock market investors in history? Well, not as spectacular as we would have … Read more