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Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Iron Prices to Move Higher, Ore Is It Wishful Thinking?

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A number iron ore producers–including Vale (VALE), BHP Billiton (BHP), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Rio Tinto (RIO)–have seen share prices jump after reports that Chinese demand for the key ingredient in steel production will increase in the second half of 2015. This is good news for iron ore producers, as approximately half of the world’s steel is produced in China. According to Vale CEO Murilo Ferreira, Chinese imports of iron ore will increase significantly in the back half of this year as domestic production is expected to be down ~200 million metric tons. According to Ferreira, a significant amount–more than most realize–of Chinese iron ore producers have ceased operations, boosting the country’s import demand. … Read more

BHP or Rio Tinto? Is That the Right Question?

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Dr. Copper is speaking, and we don’t like what he’s saying. For those long-tenured market participants, a look at the copper markets (JJC, CPER, CUPM) generally provides insight into the health of the global economy. Copper is used in just about everything related to construction and manufacturing, and the price of the metal signals the relationship between its supply and demand. A strong copper price, therefore, indicates that demand for the metal is healthy, and that in most cases and by extension, the general economy is healthy as well. What we are witnessing in the copper markets, however, is something else, and on a high level, no different than the shellacking the crude oil markets have been experiencing in recent … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week May 20

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 20. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week      Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.11. American Tower (AMT): now $1.43 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.40. AMES National (ATLO): now $0.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. AMMO, Inc. 8.75% PFD SER A (POWWP): now $0.559 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.547. Brigham Minerals (MNRL): now $0.60 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.45. Chubb (CB): now $0.83 per share … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of March 17

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 17. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Alpha Metallurgical (AMR): now $0.44 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Andlauer Healthcare Group (AND:CA): now $0.08 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.07. ANGC Investment Series C Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (AGNCN): now $0.6213 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.5743. Applied Materials (AMAT): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. Arcos Dorados (ARCO): now $0.19 per share annual dividend, was $0.15. … Read more

Creditor Risk Aversion Rises Considerably in Energy, Metals & Mining Sectors

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Not all is well with commodity producers. Moody’s (MCO) has been very quick to point out that “the latest plunge by base metals prices and the renewed slide (in) crude oil prices are more ominous for corporate credit than was the earlier plummet by crude oil prices amid relatively steady industrial metals prices.” The credit rating agency’s industrial metals price index has dropped more than 10% in the past 20 days ending July 9, reaching levels not seen since the depths of the Financial Crisis in 2009. Moody’s industrial metals price index has fallen an incredible 25% since the same time stamp last year, something we’ve been witnessing anecdotally. The International Energy Agency recently warned that the bottom in crude oil … Read more

Steel Dynamics Bets Big on North America’s Industrial Economy

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Image Source: Steel Dynamics Inc – June 2020 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Investor sentiment towards the steel industry is rebounding as the medium- and long-term outlook for global industrial activity has improved markedly since March 2020. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has significantly hampered near-term industrial activity, though major fiscal stimulus packages (made feasible through major monetary stimulus programs) launched in various developed nations could provide some relief. Shares of Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) have recovered meaningfully since their March 2020 lows and are trading a tad below our fair value estimate as of this writing. Shares of STLD yield ~3.6% on an annualized forward-looking basis as of this writing and we give the steel maker a Dividend Cushion … Read more