Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor
Let’s examine a number of reasons why we don’t prefer banking entities and take a look at recent performance from industry constituents. A challenging rate environment and declining mortgage originations offer key headwinds.
Early Wednesday morning, the Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA) announced that refinancing activity declined 20% from one week earlier. Adjusted for the Labor Day weekend, total mortgage applications dropped 13.5% from the previous week. Consistent with the dramatic upward movement in interest rates, refinancing activity is down 71% since it peaked during the week of May 3, 2013. Why Do We Monitoring Refinancing Activity? When homeowners refinance, a couple outcomes can occur that pump more dollars into the economy. First, with a refinanced mortgage, owners may choose to take equity out of the home, allowing for large purchases like vehicles or even home remodeling. CoreLogic recently reported that 2.5 million more residential properties have returned to positive equity in the second quarter … Read more
Business development companies (BDCs), which help small companies in early stages of development (similar to venture capital firms), have been around in the US since 1980 when Congress amended the Investment Company Act of 1940. The amendment essentially gave individual investors the opportunity to invest in a publicly-traded private-equity firm. Though many are not as prominent as firms such as KKR, Bain Capital, or TPG Capital, there are a number of prominent business development companies that are publicly traded, including Apollo Investment Corp (AINV), American Capital Strategies (ACAS), and Ares Capital (ARCC). Since these investment vehicles have become increasingly popular with income-seeking investors, we’ve decided to take a deep look at the sector, and Main Street Capital (MAIN) in particular. Main … Read more
Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character.Untermyer: Before money or property?Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913 Image: Bank Run in Michigan, USA, February 1933. Source: Public Domain. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s sometimes easy to lose sight of the fragility of a banking firm’s business model. Let’s examine the reasons why we don’t like banking firms’ dividends. Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible. Reason #2: Others Have Tried to Invest in Bank Dividends and Have Failed. Reason #3: … Read more
A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more
Key Takeaways: · What are BDCs? Business development companies (BDCs) allow small investors access to a private equity-like investment that often sports a high yield. · How do BDCs make money? Like any capital source, BDCs make the spread between the yield on investments and cost of the debt. BDCs can also make money from well-performing assets that are sold. · What are the Risks of BDCs? Poor portfolio performance, mismanagement, and interest rate swings are among the main risks to BDCs. · Why is the Sector under Pressure? Record low SBIC debenture costs could come to an end if interest rates rise. BDC investments start to look less attractive on a relative basis when yields rise. · Which BDC … Read more
Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property? Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character. Untermyer: Before money or property? Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913 Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible Though the history of banking dates back to as early as 2000 BC in Babylonia, the makings of the present-day banking system in the US really didn’t take hold until the beginning of the 20th century. Some financial historians may argue for a later date, but we … Read more