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Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Earnings Roundup: Unilever, Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark

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We love the business models of consumer staples, but recent fundamental performance hasn’t been great, and valuations are a bit stretched. Unilever is blaming natural disasters in the US for its underlying sales growth shortfalls, Procter & Gamble has to deliver now that it defeated Nelson Peltz, and Kimberly-Clark’s meager top-line expansion may not support its valuation. A good business does not always make a good stock. By Brian Nelson, CFA Consumer staples stocks (VDC, FSTA, XLP) are fundamentally-sound entities that sell everyday items that consumers need regardless of the ups and downs of the economic cycle. That makes their business models quite resilient through thick and thin, but it also means that many are household companies that everybody knows … Read more

Amazon To Buy Whole Foods: Not Creative Destruction, Just Destruction

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Amazon announced plans to buy Whole Foods. We’re viewing the news as affirmation of our decision to stay largely away from retail exposure in the newsletter portfolios. We think a bidding war for Whole Foods is possible, mostly to keep it and its real estate out of the hands of Amazon, potentially setting up for a true “winner’s curse” scenario. The winner will overpay. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re not pleased, but then again, it’s okay. Amazon (AMZN) announced June 16 that it will buy high-end grocer Whole Foods (WFM) for $42 per share in cash. Though we mentioned that Amazon was expanding into the grocery store market anecdotally, we must say that it still is … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Brexit: Secession Bells Are Ringing!

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First Baptist Church in Columbia, S.C., where the first secession convention in the United States opened on Dec. 17, 1860. Source: Library of Congress, Washington, DC. Photo. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Web. 24 Jun. 2016. Global markets are plunging, and the implosion may still be in the early innings. Market valuations remain stretched among stagnant global economic growth, and “Brexit” may be the catalyst for a correction. In the paraphrased words of the well-known The Day of the Jackal author, Frederick Forsyth: the peasants have spoken. On June 23, the UK (EWU) held a referendum, in which anyone of voting age could take part, to decide whether the country should leave the European Union. The turnout was incredible at nearly 72%, and … Read more

Torn on Procter & Gamble

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Image Source: Phil Manker When Procter & Gamble (PG) first reported its calendar fourth-quarter 2014 results in January, we came out on the stock suggesting investors need not panic. When we rolled the model forward (what this means), however, our team was left scratching our heads. We ended up cutting our fair value estimate on P&G’s shares to $74 from $84, and we felt we were even being generous to get to the mid-$70s with that estimate. We’re torn. We love the strength of Procter & Gamble’s core brands (especially Pampers, Tide, and Gillette), its dividend track record, and its robust free cash flow, but its valuation has become out of line – mostly due to a reset of its … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Portion Packs Still in Strong Demand at Green Mountain; Free Cash Flow Surges in Fiscal 2013

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On Thursday, Green Mountain (GMCR) reported excellent fiscal fourth-quarter results. Fourth-quarter revenue advanced 22% from the same period a year ago (52-to-52 weeks) thanks to robust brewer sales and portion pack revenue growth (up 11% and 21%, respectively, as adjusted). The 21% increase in portion packs revenue was driven by a 26% increase in unit volume offset by pricing and mix. Portion packs revenue accounted for 74.2% of total net sales in the fiscal fourth quarter. The company’s gross margin expanded 240 basis points during the quarter, to 36%, thanks primarily to favorable green coffee costs and lower labor and overhead manufacturing costs. Non-GAAP operating income advanced to 18.2% of sales in the period from 16.4% in last year’s quarter. … Read more

Surveying a Few Consumer Staples: Hershey, Colgate-Palmolive, and Unilever

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<< Definition of ‘Consumer Staples’ Hershey (HSY) “We (Hershey) expect 2014 net sales growth to be within our 5 to 7 percent long-term target, including the impact of foreign currency exchange rates. As has been the case for many years, Hershey is a gross margin focused company. We have solid productivity and cost savings initiatives in place and, while early in the planning cycle, we expect adjusted gross margin expansion next year that will drive 2014 growth in adjusted earnings per share-diluted in the 9 to 11 percent range, in line with our revised long-term target.” 3Q13 press release Colgate-Palmolive (CL) “As we (Colgate-Palmolive) look ahead to 2014, while our global budget process is in its initial stages, based on … Read more

Hard Not to Like Hormel’s Acquisition of Skippy Peanut Butter

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On Thursday, food producer Hormel (click ticker for report: ) announced it will acquire Unilever’s (click ticker for report: ) Skippy Peanut Butter for $700 million. Skippy is a legendary brand, trailing only Smucker’s (click ticker for report: ) Jif in the US peanut butter market. The deal should add approximately $370 million in annual sales, while being mildly accretive to earnings in fiscal year 2013 and adding $0.13-$0.17 per share in fiscal year 2014. More importantly, Skippy is the market-share leader in China, and the company hopes to expand its international presence via Skippy and its popular Spam brand. Image Source: The Peanut Institute We like the deal for Hormel, especially since the peanut butter market has experienced fantastic … Read more