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ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Stocks Stage Comeback, US Government Budget Released

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Image shown: The performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since September 2017. The market continues to lick its wounds following the sell-off. We’re watching interest rates and technicals for signs where the market may go next. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The US 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) hit a four-year high before the open February 12, suggesting recent volatility in the equity markets is anything but going away in the near term, despite stocks bouncing back from the rough week that ended February 9. Rising interest rates may not create a financial crisis, but it could challenge the widely-held view that stock prices only increase over long-enough periods of time. After all, the past 40-year bull … Read more

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

First Harvey, Now Irma

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Image Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. NASA Sees Irma Strengthen to a Category 5 Hurricane. This visible light image of Hurricane Irma was captured by NOAA’s GOES East satellite as it strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane in the Central Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 5 at 7:45 a.m. EDT (1145 UTC). NASA and NOAA satellites have been providing valuable satellite imagery to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, and revealed that Hurricane Irma has strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on Sept. 5 around 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC). Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project. Hurricane season 2017 has not been kind to insurers.  By Brian Nelson, CFA What a disaster-of-a-hurricane-season 2017 is shaping up to be. Our hearts and thoughts go out to … Read more

Chicago Bridge’s Troubles Continue

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Image Source: Chicago Bridge We’ve lowered our fair value estimate for Chicago Bridge & Iron. By Kris Rosemann We’ve lowered our fair value estimate to $18 from $34 and widened our margin of safety for Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) after it cut its bottom-line guidance for 2017 and suspended its dividend August 11. Management may not have the best handle on its business at the moment, as evidenced by the number of projects it was forced to take a significant charge on doubling from two to four from the first to the second quarter of 2017. The bottom-line guidance reduction can be used as evidence of how precise and transparent management has been of late. The company expects second … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Top Research and Ideas You May Have Missed

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Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don’t believe Warren Buffett’s “style” is out of favor? By Brian Nelson, CFA I need to make sure that you’re aware of something very important. The media and perhaps many investment professionals define the concept of “value” as companies with low price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and the concept of “growth” as companies with high price-to-book ratios. This definition of “value” and “growth” and their corresponding returns have been magnified in writings throughout the media and across quantitative research, even in prestigious journals. Warren Buffett has been rallying against most quantitative applications and how “growth” and “value” are defined in popular media and quantitative research for decades.  Here’s one of the Oracle’s most … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more