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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline

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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline — — In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He’ll talk about which companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he’s avoiding. This and more in Valuentum’s 2020 Exclusive conference call.   Note: This video was originally published August 2, 2020.    To watch the video >>   The Theory of Universal Valuation —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

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Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Recent Data Indicates US Consumer Spending Holding Up Well, Online Sales Surging

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Image Shown: As of this writing, the S&P 500 (SPY) appears ready to end 2020 on a high note, supported by the resilience of the US consumer. By Callum Turcan The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic accelerated the shift towards e-commerce, and that change has long legs. Retailers that previously invested in their digital operations and omni-channel sales capabilities were able to capitalize on this shift while those that relied heavily on foot traffic were hurt badly. Numerous retailers went under in 2020 including J.C. Penney Company Inc (JCPNQ) and Neiman Marcus. Holiday season shopping data indicates that US consumer spending was frontloaded and grew modestly in 2020, aided by surging e-commerce sales, which advanced nearly 50% on a year-over-year basis. … Read more

FTC Attacks Facebook, Win-Win Scenario for Investors

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Image Shown: Facebook Inc has a large digital advertising business with global reach, but it does not have a monopoly on digital advertising or social media by any means. Image Source: Facebook Inc – Third Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation Summary Facebook is being sued by the FTC for allegedly engaging in monopolistic activities via its acquisition program. It’s important to note that the government is not seizing Facebook’s assets and that Facebook investors own the future free cash flow stream of the entire entity under any and every scenario–whether Facebook is retained in current form or whether it is broken into different parts through a potential IPO/spin-off of its Instagram and WhatsApp properties.  Under a status quo scenario, … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

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With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Facebook’s Promising Growth Outlook

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Image Shown: Top-weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Facebook Inc has seen its stock price surge higher over the past year and we see room for considerably more capital appreciation upside. Facebook’s growth trajectory will depend in large part on how effective the firm is at generating more revenue per active user, especially in markets outside of the US & Canada. The emergence of a large global middle class should assist in these endeavors. We view Facebook’s growth outlook quite favorably and continue to be big fans of the social media giant. By Callum Turcan Facebook Inc (FB) continues to be one of our favorite companies out there. Shares of Facebook are included as a top-weighted holding in our Best … Read more

Update on TikTok Saga

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Image Shown: Shares of Oracle Corporation, a holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, have performed well recently as excitement grows over the company’s improving long-term growth outlook. Oracle may soon become a strategic shareholder in the rising social media star TikTok, alongside Walmart Inc and various US-based venture capital firms. By Callum Turcan Some big news emerged this past weekend involving TikTok that we wanted to bring to our members attention. We covered this story in detail in late-August and mid-September, and encourage our members to check out those articles for additional background information. In brief, TikTok is currently owned by Beijing-based ByteDance, a company that has been accused of being an extension of China’s central government (meaning a … Read more

Valuentum Website Overview

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Overview of the key features of valuentum.com/ (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. The Benefits of Premium Membership >> Subscribe Now!

TikTok Up for Grabs

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Image Shown: ByteDance may be forced to sell the US operations of TikTok, and there are plenty of potential suitors out there with deep pockets. By Callum Turcan On August 27, Walmart Inc (WMT) announced it was in discussions with Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) about acquiring the US operations of popular short-video-oriented social firm TikTok from Beijing-based ByteDance. Given that Microsoft noted back on August 2 it was continuing discussions concerning a potential deal for TikTok’s US, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian operations, it is likely Walmart would be interested in acquiring an economic interest in those assets as well. Here is what Walmart had to say in its brief statement (emphasis added): The way TikTok has integrated e-commerce and advertising … Read more

Alphabet Remains a Cash Flow Juggernaut

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Image Shown: Alphabet Inc Class C shares, GOOG, are up 27% over the past year as of this writing on August 4. We continue to like shares of GOOG as a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Callum Turcan We include Alphabet Inc (GOOG) (GOOGL) Class C shares as a top-weighted holding in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, with shares of GOOG trading near their fair value estimate of $1,436 per share as of this writing. Given its pristine balance sheet, promising long-term growth trajectory and resilient business model, we see room for material capital appreciation upside at Alphabet as the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $1,795 per share of GOOG. … Read more