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Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Firms: 4 Very Good Reasons

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Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property? Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character. Untermyer: Before money or property? Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913 Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible Though the history of banking dates back to as early as 2000 BC in Babylonia, the makings of the present-day banking system in the US really didn’t take hold until the beginning of the 20th century. Some financial historians may argue for a later date, but we … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

4 Very Good Reasons Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Stocks

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Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character.Untermyer: Before money or property?Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913   Image: Bank Run in Michigan, USA, February 1933. Source: Public Domain. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s sometimes easy to lose sight of the fragility of a banking firm’s business model. Let’s examine the reasons why we don’t like banking firms’ dividends. Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible. Reason #2: Others Have Tried to Invest in Bank Dividends and Have Failed. Reason #3: … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending January 22

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending January 22. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Alaska Air (ALK): now $0.275 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Alexanders Inc. (ALX): now $4.00 share quarterly dividend, was $3.50. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.52 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.505. Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB): now $0.265 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. Cardinal Financial (CFNL): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.11. CenterPoint (CNP): now $0.2575 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.2475. Chicopee Bancorp … Read more

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

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Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 25

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending August 25. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Altria (MO): now $0.98 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.94. Atrion (ATRI): now $2.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $2.15. BancFirst (BANF): now $0.43 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.40. Banco do Brasil S.A. (BDORY): now $0.0137 per share special dividend, was $0.07. Cactus (WHD): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.11. Capital City Bank (CCBG): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 13

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 13. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Absa Group Limited (AGRPY): now $0.5992 per share dividend, was $0.5707. AFC Gamma (AFCG): now $0.33 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Altria (MO): now $1.02 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.98. ANTA Sports Products Limited (ANPDY): now $3.712 per share semi-annual dividend, was $3.602. Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (BDUUY): now $0.3199 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.3095. Benchmark Electronics (BHE): … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week November 6

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending November 6. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Aaron’s (AAN): now $0.045 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.040. Amcor (AMCR): now $0.1175 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1150. AmerisourceBergen (ABC): now $0.44 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Apartment Investment (AIV): now $8.20 per share special dividend, was $0.41. Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR): now $0.04 per share dividend, was $0.034. Barrick Gold (GOLD): now $0.09 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.08. BG Staffing … Read more