CF

Uralkali Backs Out of Belarusian Potash Company; Industry to Change

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Early this morning, Russian fertilizer Uralkali announced it will leave the Belarusian Potash Company in order to grab market share. CEO Vladislav Baumgertner asserted that BPC partner Belaruskali had been making potash exports outside of the pre-arranged agreement, rendering the BPC useless. Until now, the potash industry had been a relatively stable cartel allowing industry participants to generate robust amounts of free cash flow as spot prices rested well above the cost of production. On a conference call following the announcement, Baumgertner mentioned that the price of potash could fall by over $100/tonne as Uralkali will boost production nearly 25% and look to steal market share. Uralkali is the largest single potash producer in the world and likely has the … Read more

Potash Corp Struggles with Weak Nutrient Prices

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Nutrient fertilizer producer Potash Corp (click ticker for report: ) posted weak second quarter results Thursday morning. Revenue declined 11% year-over-year to $2.1 billion, worse than consensus estimates had anticipated. Earnings per share, adjusted for one-time items, declined 26% year-over-year to $0.73 per share, which was also worse than consensus expectations. Free cash flow remained terrific at $848 million, equal to 40% of revenue. Image Source: POT 2Q 2013 Investor Slides Potash’s issue during the second quarter was the material decline in potash (the mineral) gross margins. Prices declined significantly, falling 18% year-over-year to $356 per tonne as robust North American farmer demand (up 28% year-over-year) was more than offset by lower realized prices shipped via Canpotex. Price is paramount … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week April 29

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 29. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week      Adecoagro (AGRO): now $0.1571 per share semi-annual dividend. AGCO (AGCO): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.20. Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Altra Industrial Motion (AIMC): now $0.09 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.08. American Water Works (AWK): now $0.655 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.603. … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Update: Frequently Asked Questions About Valuentum Securities, Inc.

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What is Valuentum Securities? Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports and dividend reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. How do I subscribe to Valuentum’s investment research services? 1)    Click the following link: signup-page. 2)    Select your membership plan. 3)    Enter your contact details. 4)    Click ‘Sign Up.’ 5)    Complete your purchase. 6)   Your payment profile may be recurring, so please check … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

8 Announcements and Top Research You May Have Missed

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8 Announcements. This article was sent to members via email March 27. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Brian here. Trust you are doing great! Here are eight announcements I want you to be aware of: Everything we do is for our members. We’re very proud of the outperformance of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, that we’ve never had a dividend cut in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, that our high-yield ideas are holding up very well, and the success rates of the Exclusive capital-appreciation ideas and short-idea considerations are running at approximately 80%. We’re proud to be your research partner. The odds of a Fed rate cut are going up as yield-curve inversion continues to threaten. The risks are more behavioral in … Read more

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

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Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more